Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB NLCS Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/14)

Fact checked at 7:43 AM ET, Oct 14, 2026

Odds as of Oct 14, 7:15 AM ET

Milwaukee took both games at home, 2-1 on Oct 11 and 7-4 on Oct 12, and now the Dodgers, two-time defending World Series champions, need Game 3 to avoid a 3-0 hole. First pitch is Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET at Dodger Stadium on FS1. The market hasn't given up on Los Angeles: the Dodgers are -179 on the moneyline (Brewers +146), -1.5 on the run line at +125 (Milwaukee +1.5 at -153), and the total is 7.5 with the Over at -104 and the Under at -115.

Robert Gasser starts for Milwaukee against Blake Snell, and both picks assume those two start as announced. Lineups are not posted. The Dodgers have scored one run and then four in this series. Shohei Ohtani is 3-for-20 this postseason, Will Smith is 1-for-23, and Milwaukee's relievers have allowed one earned run in 28 2/3 postseason innings. We expect Gasser to get through four, the bullpen to take it from there, and the game to stay close. Both picks cash in that game.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Predictions

• Pick #1: Robert Gasser Over 11.5 Outs (-127)
• Pick #2: Brewers +1.5 (-153)

PICK #1: Robert Gasser Over 11.5 Outs (-127)

All Gasser has to do is finish the fourth inning. He did it in 18 of his 20 regular-season starts, and his last five went 13, 14, 15, 21 and 18 outs. The two misses were 9 outs on July 12 and 11 on Aug. 20. He got there both times he saw Los Angeles, 13 outs in May and 19 in August, even though the Dodgers tagged him for seven earned runs in those 10 2/3 innings.

His one postseason start is the warning. Against San Diego in Game 4 of the Division Series he allowed one run and still came out after exactly four innings and 56 pitches. Milwaukee has been quick with its starters all October: five of six reached 12 outs, but three stopped right at four innings and Dustin May lasted three. No limit has been announced for Gasser, and the expectation is that Milwaukee won't let him pitch deep.

Four innings is all this needs, though, and there is some pull toward a little more. Milwaukee hasn't named a Game 4 starter, and MLB.com noted that length from Gasser would help set that up. Abner Uribe has pitched in all six Brewers playoff games and Aaron Ashby in five, and with a 2-0 lead the Brewers may want to rest them if Gasser gives them the chance. At -127 the book is asking for 55.9%. With his regular-season record and a club that wants innings, we have him a bit above that.

PICK #2: Brewers +1.5 (-153)

Los Angeles didn't run away from many teams at home. In 81 regular-season home games the Dodgers won 31 by two or more runs, won 20 by one and lost 30, so Milwaukee +1.5 would have covered 50 times, or 61.7%. The -153 price works out to 60.5%.

The pitching matchup favors Los Angeles. Snell has a 1.90 ERA in 42 2/3 innings this season and a 1.13 ERA in eight starts since he returned in August, against Gasser's 3.87. That gap matters less than it looks, because Gasser only has to hand over a close game after four or five innings. The Milwaukee bullpen retired the last 15 Dodgers in order in Game 2, and this is a 103-59 team that scored the second-most runs in the majors (832) and allowed the fourth-fewest (618). Snell, meanwhile, has recorded 3, 12 and 11 outs in his last three starts, the last of them 3 2/3 innings on 90 pitches with five walks against Atlanta. The Dodgers needed seven of their nine relievers in Game 2, Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Edgardo Henriquez among them, though Tuesday's off day helped.

What beats this is a Dodgers lineup that ranked third in on-base percentage (.338) and second in slugging (.424) getting to Gasser early while Snell goes deep. That same early exit sinks the first pick too, so the two bets rise and fall together. Anyone who wants more of Milwaukee can take the moneyline at +146.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.