Fact checked at 9:13 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Notre Dame (8-1), fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings, hosts Boston College (4-5) at 3:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium in a non-conference game. The Irish are 29.5-point favorites and the total is 51.5. Notre Dame beat Miami 31-24 last week. Boston College has lost two straight, 47-2 at Duke and 31-24 at home to Florida State. This sets up as a controlled game. Both teams rely on the run, the clock keeps moving, and a Notre Dame defense missing three starters is still good enough to keep a limited Boston College passing game in check. Notre Dame wins, inside 29.5 and under 51.5.
Boston College vs. Notre Dame Predictions
Pick #1Boston College +29.5−110
Notre Dame has won by 30 or more three times in nine games, against Rice, Purdue and Stanford. Its other results were wins by 28, 17, 11, 22 and 7 and a loss at BYU. Boston College has been much harder to blow out. It has stayed within 29.5 points in seven of its eight games against FBS teams, and the one exception was the 47-2 loss at Duke.
The Irish defense is thin right now. The school's latest availability update has linebacker Drayk Bowen, cornerback DJ McKinney and safety Brauntae Johnson out, with defensive tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye questionable. Notre Dame had the same absences when Miami scored 24 in South Bend last week. Mason McKenzie is the sort of quarterback who stresses a short-handed front: he has 676 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns on 145 carries, plus 1,616 passing yards. Marcus Freeman noticed. "It all starts with their quarterback," he said. "He can run it. He can throw it."
At -110 the price implies 52.4%. Boston College has 69% of the spread money on 55% of the bets. Two public projections average Notre Dame by about 30, which is basically the line, so we're betting the matchup here and the projections don't give us anything extra. Notre Dame won last year's meeting 25-10 in Chestnut Hill.
What beats this is a Stanford-style game, where the Irish offense gets loose early and the backups keep scoring. McKenzie is expected to start but hasn't been confirmed, and Boston College without him is a different team to back.
Pick #2Under 51.5−108
Scoring has been hard for Boston College. The Eagles average 21.9 points a game, McKenzie has 1,616 passing yards, and they scored 16 or fewer in four of their eight FBS games. Notre Dame allows 14.6 points a game. Six of Boston College's eight FBS games stayed under 51.5.
Both teams want to run. Notre Dame's offense goes through Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton, and it held the ball for more than 37 minutes against North Carolina and Stanford. Boston College runs with McKenzie and Bo MacCormack III. "It's going to be a cold game, and we're expecting a lot of run," Boston College linebacker Bodie Kahoun said. The forecast backs him up: mid-40s, a northwest wind around 10 mph and a chance of showers near kickoff.
The best argument against the Under is that Notre Dame's games have gone over 51.5 in seven of nine. Three of those were the 58-7, 52-0 and 49-10 blowouts, and those are the games that would also sink the spread pick. The other four needed North Carolina, BYU, Miami or Wisconsin to put up at least 13. Two public projections average 51.5 points, exactly the number, so our edge comes from the pace and Boston College's offense. The price implies 51.9%. The Under needs a replay of Notre Dame's 35-13 win over Navy, not another Stanford game.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
