Fact checked at 9:17 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Baylor (6-3) visits BYU (7-2) at 7:00 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, and both teams are 4-2 in the Big 12. BYU is 10th in the College Football Playoff rankings and an 8.5-point favorite, with the total at 50.5. The Cougars lost 28-20 at Utah last week, a game in which Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions. Baylor fired Dave Aranda after back-to-back losses to TCU and Kansas, then won twice under interim coach Joe Klanderman: 41-9 at UCF and 42-31 against Iowa State. Both offenses should look the way they have lately. Bachmeier throws 30-plus times, and Baylor's new staff keeps feeding Ryelan Morris. The kickoff was moved because Baylor couldn't fly out on the eve of the game after the national ground stop on air travel; the Bears were reported to be traveling on game day.
Baylor vs. BYU Predictions
Pick #1Bear Bachmeier 220+ Passing Yards−162
Five games in a row, Bachmeier has thrown for at least 220: 329 against Iowa State, 224 against Notre Dame, 257 at UCF, 236 against Arizona State and 272 at Utah. He threw 30, 36, 32, 30 and 35 passes in those games. Against FBS teams he's six of eight for the season. The two misses were 217 against Arizona and 62 at TCU, where he went 11 of 24 on a rainy night and running back LJ Martin hurt his ankle early.
The TCU game is what gives us pause. Rain is in the Provo forecast through the morning and the field may be wet. By the kickoff window, though, the hourly forecast is close to dry, in the mid-40s with almost no wind. Martin came back at Utah with seven carries, and offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said the back was "not even close" to 100%. BYU has leaned on its quarterback's arm since Martin went down. Baylor gave up 256 passing yards to Iowa State last week. At -162, the implied chance is 61.8%.
Roderick also said of Baylor's secondary, "They don't give up big plays. They are not going to let you throw it over their head." Bachmeier's number comes from volume, though, with 30 or more attempts in each of the last five games. His arm is the other risk. He was seen with a wrap near his throwing elbow in the second half at Utah and kept wearing it in practice. He isn't on the Big 12 availability report and is expected to start, but BYU hasn't confirmed it. If he doesn't start, the case for this bet is gone.
Pick #2Ryelan Morris 25+ Rushing Yards−169
Baylor's offense changed shape under Klanderman. DJ Lagway threw 40, 53 and 31 passes in the three games before the coaching change and 25 and 28 in the two since. Morris, a freshman, ran 11 times for 82 yards at UCF, then nine times for 50 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa State.
He has at least 25 rushing yards in five of the seven FBS games in which he's carried the ball: 55 against Louisiana Tech, 84 at Arizona State, 25 against TCU, 82 at UCF and 50 against Iowa State. Both misses came on four carries before the change, 11 against Colorado and 6 at Kansas. The -169 price implies 62.8%, a bit under his rate, and his carries have held at nine to 11 in the new offense. BYU will also be without starting linebacker Isaiah Glasker, who is out on the latest Big 12 report.
Morris isn't the only ball carrier. Lagway ran 13 times for 119 yards against Iowa State, and Caden Knighten had seven carries in that game. Baylor won both of its games under Klanderman, and as an 8.5-point road underdog it may not be able to stay on the ground. If BYU pulls away early, Morris loses carries. In a close game, nine carries should get him there.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
