Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
Auburn (5-4, 3-4 SEC) visits Mississippi State (4-5, 2-5) at 4:15 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total at 51.5. The Bulldogs started 4-0 and have lost five straight since quarterback Kamario Taylor went down for the season. AJ Swann is expected to make his third straight start. Auburn beat Arkansas 26-23 in its last game, with Byrum Brown throwing for two touchdowns and running for another.
We expect Auburn to move the ball and finish its drives with the quarterback keeping it near the goal line. Mississippi State can't run with Swann behind center, so it will keep throwing short to the receiver he trusts most. Both picks come out of that game.
The SEC moved the kickoff after a national ground stop forced changes to Auburn's travel plans; the school says the team "did not arrive to its hotel in Tupelo" until late the night before the game.
Auburn vs. Mississippi State Predictions
Pick #1Byrum Brown Anytime Touchdown−195
Brown has run for a touchdown in eight of Auburn's nine games, all against FBS teams, and in each of the last seven. The only miss came in the 43-8 win over Southern Miss. He has eight rushing touchdowns and is Auburn's leading rusher.
His last five scores came on runs of 7, 5, 1, 7 and 5 yards. Auburn hands him the ball at the goal line whether or not the rest of his day is going well. He scored against LSU with 20 rushing yards on 19 carries, and at Ole Miss with 5 yards on 13 carries, in losses of 38-17 and 45-15. A low-scoring, grinding game doesn't take this away: Auburn managed 17 and 15 points in those two, and he still got in.
At -195 the price implies 66.1%, and eight of nine clears that comfortably. Mississippi State allows 121.3 rushing yards a game, so the yards may not come easily, but his touchdowns haven't depended on yards. The offensive line is a little thinner, with guard Cole Skinner out on the latest availability report. Brown is expected to start, as he has all season; if he doesn't, this pick is off the table.
Pick #2Marquis Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards−151
In Swann's two starts, Mississippi State ran for 68 yards on 41 carries at Texas and 43 yards on 19 carries against Vanderbilt. Swann is a pocket passer, the offense goes through the air, and nobody on the team caught more passes in those games than Johnson. He had six catches for 61 yards at Texas and six for 56 against Vanderbilt, his two best catch totals of the season.
Two games isn't much to go on, and the full season is less kind. Johnson has 40 or more in four of nine games, below the 60.2% that -151 implies. His 99 yards in the opener and 60 against Missouri came with Taylor at quarterback, and in the three games before Swann took over he had 22, 26 and 15. We're betting on the role he's had since the switch. Swann left the Texas game hurt after going 12 of 15, and the relief quarterback completed three passes for 22 yards, so most of Johnson's 61 came from Swann.
Auburn allows 244.3 passing yards a game and plays without linebackers Bryce Deas and De'Marcus Riddick, both out on the latest availability report. Riddick is a starter. That helps a receiver whose catches have come short; his longest in either game was 23 yards. The freshman who filled in at linebacker against Arkansas did have 11 tackles and three sacks, so the Tigers aren't helpless there.
What sinks this is the offense stalling again. Mississippi State has four offensive touchdowns in its last four games, and against Vanderbilt 150 of its 297 yards came on the last two drives. Swann is expected to start, not confirmed; if another quarterback starts, this pick doesn't hold.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
