Fact checked at 8:17 AM ET, Nov 13, 2026Odds as of 6:24 AM ET, Nov 13, 2026
Xavier and Mississippi State are both 3-0, and they meet at 9:00 PM ET at Colonial Hall in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., in the Greenbrier Tip-Off. The floor is neutral, and it's the first game away from home for both teams. Every win so far came at home against a team that closed as an underdog of 18.5 points or more. Xavier beat Mount St. Mary's 97-52, Eastern Michigan 76-53 and Detroit Mercy 100-55. Mississippi State beat Tennessee Tech 106-88, Northwestern State 82-44 and Jackson State 98-57. Xavier is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total at 165.5. This looks like a close game in the low 160s. Xavier's defense keeps the score down, and Xavier's shooting keeps it from pulling away.
Xavier vs. Mississippi State Predictions
Pick #1Under 165.5−112
Two public projections land at 162.8 and 163 total points, an average of 162.9, and both have the game decided by about three points. The market sits 2.6 points higher, and -112 implies 52.8%.
Xavier's games have stayed low even on nights it scored freely. They finished with 149, 129 and 155 points, and all three came in under closing totals of 158.5, 151.5 and 155.5. The Musketeers held every opponent under 30% from the field and are allowing 53.3 points a game. Their own shooting also helps the Under. Xavier is 22 of 80 from three (27.5%) and 43 of 70 at the line (61.4%).
Mississippi State's offense is the threat. The Bulldogs average 95.3 points, and their opener against Tennessee Tech hit 194 with 52 free-throw attempts. Their other two games ended at 126 and 155. If this turns into a foul-heavy game, it goes over.
Pick #2Mississippi State +3.5−110
Three public projections have Xavier winning, and none of them has it winning by 3.5. They average Xavier by 2.1, and the two that publish a score say 83-80 and 82.7-80.1. That's the same tight, lower-scoring game the Under wants. At -110, the price implies 52.4%.
On paper Xavier has been overwhelming, with wins by 45, 23 and 45. But those opponents closed as underdogs of 23.5 to 35.5 points. And a team making 61.4% of its free throws has trouble closing out a tight game. Mississippi State has been better at both: 29 of 75 from three (38.7%) and 57 of 78 at the line (73.1%). Josh Hubbard is averaging 18.0 points (25, 15 and 14), and he can create his own shot late. The Bulldogs also rebound 47.1% of their own misses, first in the SEC.
Xavier's size and its hands are the worry. Mississippi State coach Chris Jans said Xavier has one of the bigger starting lineups in college basketball, and the Musketeers outrebounded Mount St. Mary's 56-33 and Detroit Mercy 52-37. They average 14.3 steals and forced 19, 22 and 17 turnovers. Mississippi State turned it over 15 times in two of its three games. If Xavier wins the turnover battle by double digits, 3.5 points won't cover it. And three games against overmatched opponents doesn't tell us much about either team.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
