Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
LSU (3-0) and Gonzaga (2-0), 14th in the AP poll, meet for the first time at 3:30 PM ET at the Spokane Arena, and only Gonzaga has been tested. It beat Purdue 78-72 in Las Vegas, then ran past New Mexico State 109-68. LSU won all three of its games in Baton Rouge by 40 or more, over LSU New Orleans, Texas Southern and Louisiana Tech, and none of those teams rates better than 264th in one public rating. Gonzaga is a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 161.5. We think Gonzaga's size drags this into a half-court game, LSU can't shoot its way out of it, and Gonzaga wins comfortably in a game that finishes below the total.
Gonzaga should also have more frontcourt help than it did last time out. Forward Izan Almansa, who missed the New Mexico State game with a calf injury, is expected back, and Florida State transfer Chauncey Wiggins, cleared to play by a court ruling, is expected to debut, most likely off the bench. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so neither is confirmed. On the LSU side, a judge ordered the school to add RJ Luis to its roster but did not order it to play him, and he hasn't appeared in any of LSU's games.
LSU vs. Gonzaga Predictions
Pick #1Gonzaga -5.5−110
The public projections see a wider gap than the line does. Three of them have Gonzaga by 7, 8.9 and 11.4 points, an average of 9.1, with win chances between 73% and 86%. A fourth, a simulation model, has LSU by about three, so this isn't unanimous. The spread at -110 implies 52.4%.
The reason is who LSU has played. Its 52.7 points allowed a game ranks second in the country, and all of it came at home against three overmatched teams. Gonzaga has already won a close game against a good one: it led Purdue by three at halftime, held the Boilermakers to 5 of 21 from three, and closed it out at the line, where it took 34 free throws.
LSU's offense has lived at the rim, with 60, 62 and 40 points in the paint. From outside it's been cold, 20 of 74 on threes as a team, and starting guard Skyy Clark is 1 of 16. LSU's own beat writer called three-point shooting the weakness and defensive rebounding a concern, and its three opponents grabbed 40 offensive rebounds. Gonzaga has a big frontcourt, rebounded 10 and 11 of its own misses, and adds Almansa if he plays. Will Wade said it himself: "They're going to pound that thing into the paint."
Bettors agree, with 98% of the spread money on Gonzaga from 75% of the bets. What could go wrong is LSU's talent, which is real. Mark Few called it "probably the second-most talented roster maybe in college basketball," and if the press that forced 53 turnovers in three games rattles Gonzaga's guards, LSU can keep this within a possession or two.
Pick #2Under 161.5−110
LSU scores by turning defense into easy baskets, and Gonzaga doesn't hand those out. The Tigers had 30, 23 and 21 fast-break points and turned 23 Louisiana Tech turnovers into 38 points. Gonzaga committed 10 and 6 turnovers in its two games. Without the runouts, LSU is a half-court team making 27% of its threes.
Four of the teams' five games finished below 161.5: LSU's 157, 143 and 140, and Gonzaga's 150 against Purdue. Only the 109-68 rout of New Mexico State went over. Of three public projections that print a score, two land at 160 and 157, and the simulation that likes LSU comes in just above the number, for an average of about 160. The Under's -110 price implies 52.4%.
LSU's defense matters too. It held its three opponents to 57, 51 and 50. Those were weak teams, and Gonzaga will score more than they did. Still, the length and pressure travel better than the shooting does.
Pace and fouls are how this goes wrong. LSU likes to run, both teams average more than 93 points, and Gonzaga shot 13 of 24 from three against New Mexico State. It has also taken 34 and 29 free throws in its two games. If LSU's press turns this into a track meet, or the whistle gets heavy, 161.5 is reachable.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
