Wyoming vs. San Jose State Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/9)

Fact checked at 8:48 AM ET, Oct 9, 2026

Odds as of Oct 9, 8:36 AM ET

Wyoming brings the fourth-worst scoring offense in the country to San Jose on the back half of a 1,950-mile road swing. The Cowboys are 2-3 (1-1 Mountain West) after a 28-0 loss at North Dakota State. They average 14.2 points per game, 135th of 138 FBS teams, and they have lost eight straight games away from Laramie, seven of them by 14 points or more. San José State is 3-2 (1-0) after a 20-16 win at Hawaii last Saturday night, and it is home on a short week for homecoming.

The Mountain West's initial availability report has Wyoming receiver Deion DeBlanc, cornerbacks Tyson Shamsid-Deen, Ian Bell and Kendall Griffin and tackle Jake Davies out. Linebacker Ethan Stuhlsatz, the team's leading tackler with 39, is questionable with an ankle injury. San José State receiver Cooper Hoch is questionable too. The game-day report posts before kickoff. Tyler Hughes is expected to start at quarterback for Wyoming, and offensive coordinator Christian Taylor has said no change is coming. Luke Weaver is expected for the Spartans.

San José State is a 4.5-point favorite, down from 5.5 or 6 at the open depending on the book, with the moneyline at -192 and the total at 42.5, down from 43.5. Kickoff is Friday, October 9, at 9:00 PM ET at CEFCU Stadium on CBS Sports Network. The forecast is clear, mid-70s at kickoff and cooling into the 60s, with a 5 to 7 mph breeze.

We expect a slow, low-scoring game that San José State takes over once Wyoming's offense stalls, something like a 24-13 Spartans win. All three picks cash in that game.

Wyoming vs. San José State Predictions

• Pick #1: San José State -4.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 42.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: First Half Under 21.5 (-115)

PICK #1: San José State -4.5 (-110)

When Wyoming loses on the road, it is not close. The Cowboys are 0-3 away from home this season and have been outscored 87-23 in those games: 13 points at Colorado State, 10 at Central Michigan, none at North Dakota State. The losses came by 22, 14 and 28. Go back to last season and it is eight straight road losses, seven of them by 14 or more.

The offense is the reason, and the schedule does not excuse it. Colorado State allows 38.6 points per game, 134th in the country. Central Michigan allows 25.4, Hawaii 24.8. North Dakota State, at 9.8, is the only strong defense Wyoming has seen. Hughes has completed 66 of 112 passes for 708 yards with two touchdowns, both against FCS Northern Colorado, and six interceptions. In Fargo he went 5-of-14 for 52 yards and threw a pick on the first play. Wyoming has converted 19 of 56 third downs, and now it loses DeBlanc, who caught a pass in each of the last two games. The run game is the best thing the Wyoming offense has, with Markell Holman at 5.7 yards a carry and Samuel Harris at 4.9, but San José State allows 3.9 a carry.

The Spartans can win this without a big night. Weaver is throwing for 255 yards a game with 11 touchdowns. Jabari Bates runs for 97.4 a game and has carried 27 times in two of his last three. Carson Clark has 29 catches for 314 yards and four scores, and he gets a Wyoming secondary listed without three cornerbacks.

So why the spread instead of the moneyline? Because -192 implies 65.8%, and that is a lot to lay on a team that beat Hawaii by four, beat Eastern Michigan by six and lost 26-10 at home to Fresno State. At -110 the spread implies 52.4% and wins in the same game. If San José State wins, Wyoming's road record says it wins by more than a field goal.

What worries us: San José State's three wins came by 4, 6 and 10 points, the spread has dropped from 5.5 or 6 to 4.5, and 59% of the spread money is on Wyoming from 45% of the bets. Wyoming beat Hawaii 27-10 at home while San José State needed a late field goal to win there, and the Cowboys took last year's meeting 35-28 in Laramie. Weaver threw four interceptions against Fresno State. Short fields are the one way Wyoming keeps this inside a touchdown.

PICK #2: Under 42.5 (-110)

Only one Wyoming game this season has cleared 42.5, the 48-point opener at Colorado State. The other four finished at 34, 34, 37 and 28, and every one of Wyoming's eight touchdowns has come from the offense, so there are no defensive or return scores propping up the numbers.

San José State's games have run higher, 68 at USC and then 48, 50, 36 and 36, but look closer. The Spartans have scored more than 27 once, and that was 30 against FCS Cal Poly. They have three first-quarter points all season. They have also become a balanced offense, 170 rushes against 173 pass attempts, which keeps the clock moving. Both teams have stayed under the closing total in four of their last five games.

The number has already dropped from 43.5, and from 44.5 at some books, and the Under holds 74% of the tickets but only 61% of the money, so the bigger bets are on the Over. Neither defense is going to scare anyone. San José State gives up 258 passing yards a game, including 341 to USC and 341 to Hawaii, and Wyoming allows 22.0 points a game. If Weaver gets going early against a short-handed secondary, this gets away from the Under. The weather is no help either way, clear and nearly calm. The -110 price works out to 52.4%, and the Wyoming side of the scoreboard makes that a fair ask.

PICK #3: First Half Under 21.5 (-115)

Wyoming has scored six first-quarter points all season, two field goals. San José State has scored three. Neither of these teams comes out of the tunnel ready to score.

The first-half totals say the same thing. Wyoming's five first halves have finished with 20, 17, 17, 16 and 17 combined points, none reaching 21. San José State's have gone 28 at USC, then 17, 19, 9 and 14. By game, Wyoming's first-half scoring is 6, 7, 0, 13 and 0, and San José State's is 0, 10, 13, 3 and 14. Most books have the first-half total at 21.5, with a few at 20.5 or 22.5, and -115 on the Under implies 53.5%.

The danger is the second quarter. Wyoming has been outscored 41-20 in it this season, with Central Michigan scoring 14 and North Dakota State 10 in that frame. A 17-point second quarter from the Spartans, or an early Wyoming turnover that hands them a short field, gets this to the number before halftime.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.