Wings vs. Valkyries Prediction, WNBA Playoffs Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/2)

Fact checked at 10:35 AM ET, Oct 2, 2026

Odds as of Oct 2, 9:48 AM ET

Dallas and Golden State play a deciding Game 3 on Friday night at Chase Center, 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2, with the first-round series tied 1-1. The Valkyries took the opener 104-80 in San Francisco on Sunday. Dallas answered in Arlington on Wednesday, 108-100 in overtime, with Arike Ogunbowale scoring 45, a league playoff record, on a night Gabby Williams put up a career-high 36 and still went home with a loss.

The consensus line has Golden State -7.5 (-115), up from -6.5 at the open. The total is 158.5 after opening at 157.5, and the moneyline is -345 on the Valkyries and +275 on the Wings. Golden State went 32-12 and gave up 75.1 points a game, fewest in the league. Dallas went 27-17 and scored 89.4. The Valkyries have won four of the five meetings this season and covered the closing spread in all four of those wins.

Each side had one day off after Wednesday. The Dallas report lists Awak Kuier as probable with a right wrist injury and Alanna Smith as out with a lower left leg injury, and Azzi Fudd is still out for the season after August knee surgery. Golden State lists nobody. Expect both teams to open with the same five that started the first two games.

Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Predictions

• Pick #1: Veronica Burton Under 6.5 Assists (-142)
• Pick #2: Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-163)
• Pick #3: Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 Rebounds (-168)

PICK #1: Veronica Burton Under 6.5 Assists (-142)

Five, seven, five, five, five. Those are Veronica Burton's assist totals in the five games against Dallas this season, and she needs seven to beat this number. Four nights out of five against this team she has walked off with exactly five, which is starting to look like a habit.

The last two fives came in games that looked nothing alike: 23 minutes in Sunday's blowout, 37 minutes in Wednesday's overtime loss, and five assists both times. Her last five starts overall went 5, 5, 5, 8 and 4, and across 44 regular-season starts she averaged 5.7 assists in 28.6 minutes, so 6.5 is most of an assist above her normal night.

Part of the reason is that Golden State spreads the passing around. The team makes 28.7 field goals a game and averages 19.3 assists, and Burton is one of several people doing it. Williams had four assists in Game 1 and seven in Game 2, and Tiffany Hayes added four and two off the bench. The Valkyries scored 104 and 100 in this series, finished with 22 and 21 assists, and Burton had five both nights anyway.

Two games in those lists went over. She had seven at Dallas on August 7, a night Golden State piled up 27 assists, and eight at Portland on September 22 in a 36-minute overtime game. That second one is how this bet loses: a deciding game can push her minutes toward that range, and overtime counts. Her four-assist game against Seattle on September 19 came with Williams and Cecilia Zandalasini out of the lineup, so it tells you less about tonight than the Dallas games do.

The Under is -142 as of 10:00 AM ET. Break-even at that price is 58.7%, and the Over is +105 for anyone who expects a heavy-minutes night.

PICK #2: Kayla Thornton Over 4.5 Rebounds (-163)

The price is -163 as of 10:00 AM ET, an implied 62.0%, with the Under at +119. That's a lot to pay on a rebound line that matches Thornton's season average to the decimal, and I'm paying it anyway, because of what this matchup has done to her minutes and her numbers.

Thornton has beaten 4.5 in four of five games against Dallas this season and in four of her last five starts, a stretch that includes both series games. Against the Wings she has 11, 10, 3, 5 and 6 rebounds, seven a game against a season average of 4.5, though the 11 and 10 came against Dallas lineups that no longer start; against the current five she has five and six.

Minutes explain part of it. She averaged 24.3 over 44 starts, but against Dallas Golden State has played her 29, 27, 33, 19 and 31 minutes in the five meetings. The 19 was Sunday's blowout, and she got to five anyway. Wednesday's overtime game gave her 31 minutes and six boards.

Her last five starts went 6, 5, 2, 7 and 6. The six against Seattle on September 19 came with Golden State missing two starters, so the other four are the better guide. Dallas has helped too. The Wings missed at least 32 shots in every one of the five meetings, including a 21-for-62 night on August 7, when Thornton had 10 rebounds.

What bothers me is that 4.5 is her average night, not a soft number. An ordinary Thornton game can land on four. She had three rebounds in 33 minutes on August 17 and two at Los Angeles on September 24. Dallas shot 46.8% this season and went 32-for-64 on Wednesday, and Jessica Shepard, who averaged 11.1 rebounds, takes boards away from everyone on the floor. Another runaway would cut Thornton's minutes the way Game 1 did.

Neither this nor the Burton Under cares who wins. Overtime is what pulls them apart: extra minutes help this one and hurt that one.

PICK #3: Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 Rebounds (-168)

Five straight starts with at least four rebounds, both games of this series included. That's Paige Bueckers' run coming into Game 3, and the line is 3.5.

Those five read 4, 6, 5, 5 and 4, all played since Dallas settled on its current starting five. She averaged 4.1 rebounds in 32.8 minutes across 42 starts this season. In this series she had six in 25 minutes in the Game 1 blowout and four in 43 minutes on Wednesday. A deciding game points to another heavy night: outside that blowout she played between 30 and 43 minutes in those games.

Golden State gives her the chances. The Valkyries shot 42.2% this season on 68.0 attempts per game, and in the five meetings with Dallas they missed between 34 and 45 shots every time.

The Over is -168 as of 10:00 AM ET, the highest price on this card, and the Under is +123. That price implies 62.7%, which is why the earlier part of the season series matters.

Before this series Bueckers had 3, 1 and 2 rebounds in the three regular-season meetings, in 36, 29 and 33 minutes, so the Over has lost three of the five games against this opponent. Dallas started different lineups in those games, with Smith in the frontcourt for two of them, but the minutes were there and the rebounds were not. Two of her last five starts landed on exactly four, the bare minimum. Shepard's 11.1 rebounds a game come out of the same supply.

Thornton and Bueckers rebound at opposite ends of the floor, so a cold shooting night for either team feeds one of these picks without taking anything from the other.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.