Dream vs. Valkyries Prediction, WNBA Finals Game 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:39 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

The Finals are tied 2-2, and Game 5 tips at 8:00 PM ET at Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State took the opener 68-64 at home. Atlanta won Game 2 there 79-65, then won Game 3 at home 97-71, and Golden State answered with a 67-62 road win in Game 4. It's a best-of-seven, so the winner moves within one win of a first title and the loser plays on in Game 6.

Golden State went 32-12 and allowed 75.1 points per game, the fewest in the league. Atlanta went 30-14 and scored 91.3 points a game, third in the league. Three of the four Finals games finished at 132, 144 and 129 combined points, and Game 3's 168 is the outlier.

The Valkyries are 1.5-point favorites at -104 and the total is 149.5, and neither number has moved since it opened. Atlanta has Brionna Jones out with a left-leg injury, and she hasn't played in the series. Allisha Gray has played every Finals game through a left-hand injury and isn't on the latest league injury report. Golden State's only listed absence is center Iliana Rupert, out for the season.

We expect Golden State's defense to set the terms again at home. The Valkyries win a grinder, the game stays under the total, and Rhyne Howard stays cold from three, the way she has all series.

Dream vs. Valkyries Predictions

• Pick #1: Valkyries -1.5 (-104)
• Pick #2: Under 149.5 (-111)
• Pick #3: Rhyne Howard Under 2.5 Threes (-132)

PICK #1: Valkyries -1.5 (-104)

Golden State's two Finals wins came when Atlanta scored 64 and 62. The Valkyries allowed 75.1 points a game in the regular season, first of 15 teams, and in Game 4 they led for most of the game, building the margin with a 42-26 first half.

They've won by two or more in 38 of their 54 regular-season and playoff games, and -104 implies a 51.0% chance. The consensus is -1.5, but some books deal -0.5, and with a margin this thin that half-point is worth shopping for.

The worry is Golden State's own scoring. The Valkyries averaged 82.2 points, tied for 13th of 15, and if this turns into another Game 3, the Dream's offense wins it. Road teams have also taken two of the four games, including Atlanta's Game 2 win in this building. And this is the crowded side: 91% of the spread bets and 94% of the money are on Golden State.

PICK #2: Under 149.5 (-111)

Take out Game 3 and the series has been low-scoring. Games 1, 2 and 4 landed at 132, 144 and 129, all well short of 149.5. Atlanta scored 64, 79 and 62 in those games, and Golden State scored 68, 65 and 67.

The market has moved toward that. Earlier games in this series closed around 153, and this one sits at 149.5, with a few books at 150.5. The -111 price implies 52.6%, and a repeat of any of those three games would cash it.

The full season is the problem. Both teams played higher-scoring games over the year than they have in this series: Golden State's regular-season and playoff games went under 149.5 in 19 of 54, and Atlanta's in 7 of 53. Game 3 showed how quickly the Dream can blow through a number when their shots fall. The Under is also the popular side, with 77% of the bets and 82% of the money.

PICK #3: Rhyne Howard Under 2.5 Threes (-132)

Howard hasn't hit three 3-pointers in a single Finals game. She went 2-for-9 in Game 1, 1-for-5 in Game 2, 1-for-2 in Game 3 and 2-for-8 in Game 4, 6-for-24 for the series. That's Golden State's defense doing its job on her, and it's the same game the first two picks need.

She has started every game and played 27 to 38 minutes, so the shots are there, but the makes haven't been. In the two Golden State wins she was 4-for-17 from deep. At -132 the Under implies 56.9%.

The risk is volume. Howard put up eight or more threes in Games 1 and 4, and she made four in Atlanta's semifinal win at New York. One hot quarter could get her there.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.