Wimbledon Men's Singles Final 2024 14 July

Prepare your popcorn for the Wimbledon men’s singles final on Sunday afternoon. It does not get much bigger than this – a rematch of last summer’s title tilt at the All-England Club that saw Carlos Alcaraz take down Novak Djokovic in five sets. That may have been a slight upset at the time, but Alcaraz is a small favorite this time around. Will the Spaniard go back-to-back, or is revenge in the cards for Djokovic?

Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made before the championship match gets underway at 2 PM local time. 

Wimbledon Men's Singles Final Predictions 

Side: Carlos Alcaraz ML (-145) 

Total: Over 40.5 games (-110) 

Player prop: Carlos Alcaraz -0.5 double-faults (-120) 

Carlos Alcaraz ML: Spaniard bidding to go back-to-back 

Unsurprisingly, the books have set a relatively sharp line for the championship match. Alcaraz is a slight favorite, which is exactly how it should be. Still, there is value in the world No. 3. He is not only better than Djokovic right now; he is also better than everyone else on tour. Jannik Sinner may be ranked No. 1, but Alcaraz took him down in the French Open semifinals and went on to take that title.

Now the Spaniard is one win away from another major crowd after beating Daniil Medvedev on Friday (Medvedev had previously ousted Sinner in the quarters). Alcaraz was also extremely impressive in his quarterfinal victory over a red-hot Tommy Paul. Djokovic, on the other hand, enjoyed a remarkably routine path to the final during which he was rarely tested by unspectacular competition. He even got a walkover in the quarterfinals from Alex de Minaur.

The bottom line is that Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in last summer’s title tilt and that was when Djokovic was near the height of his powers. Even though he is still playing well at 37, he is a bit off his 2023 level these days. Djokovic has not won a single title in 2024. Expect the drought to continue. 

Over 40.5 games: Thrillers are the norm between Alcaraz and Djokovic 

Last season’s five-set tussle at Wimbledon resulted in 46 games played. Even though two of the five sets were lopsided scores of 6-1, the contest still soared over the total – both the 2023 number and the mark at which this rematch is set. In five head-to-head encounters between these two champions, only one has been a straight-set affair. 

Two have ended in deciding-set tiebreakers, with Alcaraz triumphing 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5) at the 2022 Madrid tournament and Djokovic prevailing 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) last summer in Cincinnati. Case in point: when these two guys square off you can expect long, entertaining competitions. 

Alcaraz -0.5 double-faults: Djokovic’s serve is superior 

The one thing Djokovic has been doing better than Alcaraz so far at these Championships is serving. Heading into the final the Serb is serving at 67 percent compared to his opponent’s 64. Djokovic also wins 82 percent of his first-serve points; Alcaraz is at a modest 74. Since the 21-year-old has not been winning a huge percentage of points with his first delivery, he may be inclined to go for more and beef up the pace on Sunday.

More risk leads to a lower percentage of first serves in the court, more second serves to be hit and therefore more double-faults. Alcaraz has double-faulted 21 times at Wimbledon, seven more than Djokovic. The statistic of average DFs per game is minuscule (Alcaraz is just barely ahead), but it’s still enough to make this a good bet. Moreover, in five head-to-head meetings, the youngster has doubled 19 times to Djokovic’s 14. That includes a seven to three margin in last year’s title match at the All-England Club – even though Alcaraz won it!