US Open Tennis Men’s Singles Winner Picks

US Open Tennis Men’s Singles Winner Picks

The 2026 U.S. Open is without question one of the most up-for-grabs men’s singles Grand Slam tournaments in quite some time. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury, while No. 2 Alexander Zverev has not played well since finishing runner-up to Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon. Not to mention, No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz has not taken the singles court since April due to a wrist issue, and four-time champion Novak Djokovic is 39 years old and did not look good a couple of weeks ago in Cincinnati.

Is the door open for an American man to win a major title for the first time since Andy Roddick at this tournament in 2023? It’s possible. Five of the top 14 favorites hail from the host nation – Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul and Brandon Nakashima.

Let’s break down the odds and the best bets to make for the U.S. Open men’s singles event.

US Open Men's Singles Odds 

Despite having not played a match since the start of the clay-court swing this spring, Alcaraz arrives in New York as the title favorite thanks to Sinner’s absence. The Spaniard is followed closely behind by Zverev, after which there is a sizable gap to Djokovic. After that, it’s pretty much anyone’s ballgame.

Here is the short list of favorites:

• Carlos Alcaraz +240 
• Alexander Zverev +300 
• Novak Djokovic +750 
• Ben Shelton +900 
• Rafael Jodar +1200 
• Arthur Fils +1200 
• Taylor Fritz +1400
• Felix Auger-Aliassime +2800 
• Jakub Mensik +3000 
• Flavio Cobolli +3500 
• Daniil Medvedev +3500 
• Frances Tiafoe +5000
• Tommy Paul +5000 
• Brandon Nakashima +5000 
• Lorenzo Musetti +5000 

US Open Men’s Singles Predictions 

Pick #1 - Taylor Fritz to win the U.S. Open (+1400) 

Pick #2 – Frances Tiafoe to win the U.S. Open (+5000) 

Pick #3 - Arthur Fils to win the U.S. Open (+8000) 

PICK #1: Taylor Fritz +1400

Of the American contenders, nobody has a better draw than Fritz. In fact, the 28-year-old may have the best draw of anyone in the entire field, as he is in a much weaker top half opposite Alcaraz, Djokovic, Shelton, Fils and Tiafoe. Fritz would not even have to face Felix Auger-Aliassime until the quarterfinals and Zverev until the semis. The world No. 10 is a former U.S. Open finalist – he lost to Sinner in 2024 – and he has reached at least the quarterfinals in three straight trips to Flushing Meadows. 

PICK #2: Frances Tiafoe +5000

Tiafoe may be in a more difficult bottom half, but his path through the bracket is otherwise a favorable one. The world No. 12’s nearest top-eight seed is Daniil Medvedev, who is mired in a significant slump. Tiafoe would not run into Djokovic until the quarterfinals, and there is a very good chance that the Serb does not make it that far. Alcaraz would not be in Tiafoe’s way until the semis, and there is an even better chance that the two-time champ does not make it that far in his comeback to tennis. The opportunity is there for Tiafoe, and he is playing well enough to seize it after making a recent run to the Cincinnati title match. 

PICK #3: Arthur Fils +1200 

Danger lurks immediately for Fils, who has to go up against former world No. 3 and two-time Grand Slam finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opening round. If the Frenchman gets through it, though, he could go all the way. In his last two events, Fils reached the quarterfinals in Montreal and then lifted the trophy in Cincinnati. The 22-year-old has never done anything at a Grand Slam, but that is only because injuries have held him back. Finally, he arrives at a slam with a clean bill of health.