Who will win the Super Bowl MVP? History, picks and our Best Bet

Betting on who will win the Super Bowl MVP is not rocket science but it is tricky, as you not only have to nail the winning team, but you have to also hit the winning position on that team to get it right. Actually, that’s not entirely true. A guy named Chuck Howley, a linebacker for the Cowboys in Super Bowl V, won the MVP despite the fact his team was beaten by the Colts. And that’s the only time an MVP has come from a losing team. But back to the subject - an MVP bet is more like a two-leg parlay than a single bet.  Let’s take a look at the numbers and see where the smart money should go. 



Over the last 20 years the Super Bowl MVP breakdown is very interesting. While getting a good running back is a key element of fantasy football, ball carriers have been mostly irrelevant when it comes to winning Super Bowl MVPs. In fact, there hasn’t been a single RB MVP in the past 20 years! 

Check out our other Super Bowl Insights by clicking on the title: First Touchdown, Heads or Tails? and Reviewing the Odds.

You have to go back to the Broncos’ Terrell Davis in SB XXXII to find one, and that took place in 1999, or 24 years ago. And looking over the entire history of the big game, only six other backs have ever won the award. And the list of names is pretty great: Larry Csonka, Franco Harris, John Riggins, Marcus Allen, Ottis Anderson, Emmit Smith and Davis. That’s it. 

And given that the lead backs for the Chiefs and Eagles are guys named Isiah Pacheco and Miles Sanders, the odds aren’t heavily in favor of a running back winning it this year, at least on paper. The Chiefs only gave up 10 rushing TDs this season and the Eagles allowed 15, so if you are going to try to hit a home run and bet on a back, Pacheco might have a slight edge if you think the Chiefs are going to win. 

So what position does win the Super Bowl MVP? Here’s the breakdown over the last 20 games: 

Quarterbacks - 12

Wide Receivers - 5

Linebackers - 2

Cornerbacks - 1

That’s right. No tight ends or running backs. Quarterback is obviously the easiest position to win the award from and it just so happens that one of the QBs in this game has already done so - Patrick Mahomes in SB LIV four years ago. Here are the current odds on MVP via FanDuel.

KC QB Patrick Mahomes +130

PHI QB Jalen Hurts +130

KC TE Travis Kelce +1600

PHI WR A.J. Brown +1800

PHI RB Miles Sanders +2500

PHI WR DeVontae Smith +3100

PHI LB Haason Reddick +3400

KC RB Jerick McKinnon +5000

KC RB Isiah Pacheco +5000

KC DT Chris Jones +5000

PHI TE Dallas Goedert +6000

KC WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling +6000

KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster +7500

PHI DE Brandon Graham +7500

The list goes on but for time and space purposes we’re going to stop there. Vegas has the Eagles as a 1.5 point favorite to win the game, but that line is close enough that you might as well go with the team you think is going to win, and not necessarily what Vegas says. Personally, I’m not a someone who likes to bet against Mahomes, as he tends to burn me every time I try it. 

Throwing $100 at either quarterback will only bring you back $130. If you’re into a low-risk, low-reward strategy or if your wife hates it when you gamble, that’s probably the way to go.  

If you’re looking to hit a nice payday with some risk without getting crazy, tight end Travis Kelce caught three touchdowns in just two playoff games over the past few weeks and is clearly Mahomes’ favorite target. He also caught 12 TDs in the regular season and his playoff explosion came after he didn’t have a TD catch in his last six regular-season games. Although a tight end has never won an MVP, Kelce is going to go down as one of the greatest of all time and his numbers are closing in on some of the great receivers, as well. One hundred dollars on Kelce will return $1,600 bucks. 

A.J. Brown seems like the best bet if you’re looking at a Philly receiver at +1800, but keep in mind he didn’t catch a TD pass in the playoffs and has just one touchdown since before Christmas. 

And if you want to get after it and try to break the bank, two linebackers and a cornerback have won the MVP in the last 20 years (Von Miller, Malcolm Smith, Dexter Jackson). A hundo on Philly’s Hasson Reddick would pay off to the tune of $3,400. 

And lastly, if you are a big fan of the kicking game and like burning money, throwing $100 at Jake Elliott or Harrison Butker would bring home a whopping $28,000 just in time for Valentine’s Day. But, as we mentioned earlier, a kicker has never won the Super Bowl MVP and probably never will. 

Here are some of our picks for the MVP. Good luck this weekend!

If Eagles win

Conservative - QB Jalen Hurts +130

Mid-risk - WR A.J. Brown +1800

Risky - TE Dallas Goedert +6000

Swing for the fences - DE Brandon Graham +7500

If Chiefs win

Conservative - QB Patrick Mahomes +130

Mid-risk - TE Travis Kelce $1600

Risky - DT Chris Jones +5000

Swing for the fences - WR JuJu Smith-Shuster +7500

Our Best Bet: Travis Kelce +1600

To see our Best Picks for the outcome of big game click here!