Heads or Tails? Betting on the Super Bowl Coin Flip - Best Odds and Stats to Consider

Some of the most popular bets during the Super Bowl don’t actually happen during the Super Bowl. Or at least, not during the game time. 

Perhaps the most popular is, well, the most random: the coin flip.

People love to stake money on the coin toss to begin the Super Bowl. Maybe it’s because it seems practical, as flipping a coin to decide fate is something we’ve all done. Or maybe it’s for the thrill of a true 50-50 result. Former NFL Punter turned podcaster, analyst and all-around entertainer Pat McAfee wagered $30,000 on the coin toss being tails before Super Bowl LV. 

And well…it didn’t go great. 

He followed it up with a $40,000 bet on the coin toss of last year’s Super Bowl. 

And once again, tails failed him. 

And while it truly is the most even bet of all, there are several avenues of thought bettors could take to arrive at their pick, beyond the old school “Heads always wins” or “Tails never fails” way of thinking.

The Odds

With there being no real edge to heads or tails being the result of the coin flip, oddsmakers pretty much always are going to offer both options at the same value. Traditionally, that tends to be somewhere around -110 odds. However, Draftkings is offering both options at +100 odds for Super Bowl LVII, which is the best offering available in the United States. 

You can sign up for a Draftkings account here.

History

Overall, in the 56 previous Super Bowls, it hasn’t exactly been a 50-50 split. Tails currently holds the advantage all time with the coin toss landing on Tails 29 times to the 27 of Heads. This puts Tails at a roughly 52 percent clip. 

However, Heads has won the last two Super Bowls. Whether that means Tails is due or slumping, well we’ll leave that up to you to decide.

Having the same result three years in a row isn’t unprecedented though. Historically, there’s been nine instances of the same result happening three years in a row (Heads-4, Tails-5). Could we be in the middle of another historic run of three-peats? (If heads won the next two Super Bowls, it would both even the count of times a side has won three consecutive years as well as the overall count.)

What we know so far

There are a few other thing that can be considered here if one is looking to overanalyze this thing further. We know that Kansas City will be the ones calling the coin toss. How did we get there?

While in normal NFL games, the away team calls the coin toss, with the Super Bowl being played at a neutral site, it gets a tad more complicated. 

In even Super Bowls, the AFC team is considered the “home team” while in odd Super Bowls the NFC representative is considered the host. From there, the designated home team can choose to either be the team to call the coin toss or choose which uniforms to wear, which can also have some superstition tied to it if you choose (The team wearing white uniforms has won 14 of the last 17 Super Bowls).

For Super Bowl LVII, the Eagles, as representatives from the NFC, serve as the designated home team and chose to sport their traditional Midnight Green home jerseys, which means the Chiefs will get to call the coin toss (and wear white). The Chiefs won the coin toss in eight of their 17 games this year, but the Eagles led the league, winning 13 of 17 regular season coin flips.

Coin Flip Curse?

Perhaps the most intriguing part of it all is somewhat seen as a new development. Much like when the white-jersey phenomenon was first discovered, it’s been noticed in recent years that there’s a trend where the team that wins the coin toss has lost the last eight Super Bowls. 

So, if you believe that trend to continue, you could allow even more overthinking to ensue. 

For starters, along with the age old question of heads or tails, bettors can also bet on which team will win the coin toss. Draftkings is also offering that prop, with both Eagles and Chiefs as options, at +100. If you believe the eight-straight wins by coin-toss losers is to continue, one could simply choose who they feel will win the game and then bet for the other team to win the coin toss in hopes of cashing in on an early bet. If you want to involve the white jersey curse to the coin toss curse…alright that just gets confusing. (Side note: Be warned, of the three teams to win in non-white jerseys in the last 17 years, the Eagles are one of them, wearing the exact same Midnight Green uniforms.)

So whether you’re a believer in the recent trends and superstitions, the overall history of the coin flip, or just stick to your guns as a Heads or Tails person, you’ve now been armed with way more information than needed for the one bet that really requires no information.

My pick: Tails (+100 on Draftkings) Travis Kelce seems like a Tails never fails guy, plus the Chiefs opted for Heads in their last Super Bowl before losing in blowout fashion, so I look for them to change it up. I ultimately expect the Chiefs to win the coin toss, but lose the game in keeping with the trend of coin-toss winners becoming Super Bowl losers. Furthermore, the team calling the coin toss in the Chiefs’ last two appearances both won the toss (and lost the game) while in Philly’s last Super Bowl appearance, they lost the toss. But above all that….I just flipped a coin in my house and it landed on Tails.

Other coin toss prop picks: 

Team to win coin toss: Chiefs (+100 on Draftkings)

KC Chiefs to win coin toss and game: No (-400 on Draftkings)

Coin toss winner wins game: No (-104 on Fanduel)

Team to receive opening kickoff: Eagles (-104 on Fanduel) The Chiefs deferred the kickoff in all but one of their 8 coin toss victories this season. On the other hand, the Eagles deferred on all 13 of their coin toss victories this season. Look for whichever team loses the toss to receive the opening kickoff.