Reviewing the best picks to score Super Bowl LVII's first touchdown

Predicting the first touchdown scorer in NFL games has become one of the most popular prop bets there are. To nail a first touchdown scorer bet requires a lot to go right, thus often coming with a big payout for those who get it right. With all the pressure of football’s biggest stage often bringing out new wrinkles and strategies, cashing a first touchdown scorer bet in the Super Bowl can be even tougher. 

Odds

The consensus favorites to score the first touchdown are Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders and Travis Kelce, with odds starting in the +650 realm to +19000 if Ihmir Smith-Marsette, a wide receiver low on the Chiefs depth chart somehow snags his first career touchdown as the big game’s first touchdown. Depending on which player you’re predicting to score first, you’ll want to take a look at odds on multiple sites as the various sportsbooks are all over the place. We’ll cover where to find the best odds for the most popular picks as well as our pick for first touchdown scorer in Super Bowl LVII.

History

In the last 10 Super Bowls, the first touchdown has been scored through the air five times with Odell Beckham Jr. catching the first points of last year’s championship. Of those five, four have been caught by receivers with Rob Gronkowski’s first touchdown of Super Bowl LV being the only caught by a tight end in the last decade. 

You have to go back to Super Bowl LIV in 2020 to find the most recent rushing touchdown to open a Super Bowl, which was actually scored by Patrick Mahomes, the only first touchdown scored by the quarterback in the last 10 Super Bowls. Going back one more year gives us the most recent rushing touchdown by a running back as the first touchdown in a Super Bowl, where Sony Michel scored the lone touchdown for the Patriots in 2019’s snoozefest of a game. Rushing touchdowns have accounted for four of the last 10 opening touchdowns. The Broncos scored the only non-offensive first touchdown in the last 10 Super Bowls when Malik Jackson recovered a fumble in the endzone in 2015. 

Picks

Jalen Hurts

Best Odds: +1000 at BetMGM

The Eagles quarterback led his team in touchdowns scored with 13 rushing touchdowns (first, last and anytime touchdown props only count the person who has the ball in the endzone, so a Jalen Hurts passing touchdown to open the game would only win bets for the receiver of the touchdown). More importantly, he scored the first touchdown for the Eagles six times this season, including three as the game’s first touchdown. Overall, the Eagles scored the first touchdown of the game in 13 of their 19 games this season including the last three. However, Hurts hasn’t scored the opening touchdown of a game since his Week 15 shoulder injury, as the quarterback seems to be more cautious with his rushes. But, Hurts does have a rushing touchdown in each of the Eagles’ two playoff wins, so he seems to be back to his normal pace.

Miles Sanders

Best Odds: +1000 at BetMGM

Sanders tied for the second-most touchdowns scored on the Eagles with A.J. Brown at 11 apiece and scored the first touchdown for the Eagles in four games, including three where he was the first touchdown scorer for the game. Sanders did score the first touchdown in the Eagles’ last game, kicking off the NFC Championship with a rushing touchdown at the goal line.

Travis Kelce

Best Odds: +700 at Draftkings

Kelce is the favorite to score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl and that’s well earned. To start, the Chiefs scored first in 12 of their 19 games this season. Kelce accounted for five of those scores while scoring the Chiefs’ first touchdown in seven games this season. Perhaps most importantly, Kelce has scored the opening touchdown in both playoff games he’s played in so far this season.

Isiah Pacheco

Best Odds: +1100 at BetMGM

Pacheco only scored the first touchdown once this season, starting off 2023 as the Chiefs’ first touchdown scorer in Week 17. The running back did account for five touchdowns for Kansas City’s loaded offense this season.

A.J. Brown

Best Odds: +1000 at BetMGM

Seen by many as the difference maker in how the Eagles got here, the new addition to the Eagles offense provided quite the spark this season with 11 touchdowns, tied with Sanders for second most on the team. However Brown scored the first touchdown for the Eagles only twice this season, with his Week 6 score being the only time he scored the first overall touchdown in the game. 

Dallas Goedert

Best Odds: +1200 at BetMGM and Fanduel

Goedert scored the opening touchdown in two games this season, with one being in the Eagles’ first postseason game against the Giants. Of all the players with +1200 or better odds, he has the least amount of touchdowns scored this season with three.

Jerick McKinnon

Best Odds: +1200 at Fanduel and Draftkings

McKinnon had the second most touchdowns scored for the Chiefs this season with 10 and is one of five Chiefs that scored both receiving and rushing touchdowns this season. McKinnon also scored the first touchdown for the Chiefs in five different games this season including three consecutive games in Weeks 13-15. McKinnon was the last Chief not-named Travis Kelce to score the first touchdown in a game, scoring the game’s opening touchdown in Week 18. 

DeVonta Smith

Best Odds: +1400 at Draftkings

A sneaky value pick if you expect the Eagles to strike first, Smith might be an option as the first touchdown scorer, especially if Philadelphia were to connect for a long pass early. Smith compiled seven touchdowns this season and has added one more in the playoffs. Smith also has the longest catch for the Eagles in the postseason at 40 yards. The receiver only scored as the first touchdown of the game once this season, in Week 13. 

Kadarius Toney

Best Odds: +2200 at Fanduel

Toney snagged the first touchdown of the game twice this season, in Week 10 and 16. In fact, Toney only had one touchdown all season that wasn’t the first of the game. However, Toney had limited participation in practice on Wednesday as he battles nagging injuries, so any considerations of Toney to score the game’s first touchdown should consider his injury status.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Best Odds: +2000 at BetMGM

With only three touchdowns all regular season and only three catches so far in the playoffs, JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t made quite the impact that some folks expected upon his arrival in Kansas City. With so many weapons to choose from, Smith-Schuster just doesn’t seem high on the list. The receiver did have one first touchdown scored this season in Week 6, but hasn’t found the endzone at all since Week 14.

Kenneth Gainwell

Best Odds: +2300 at Fanduel

Gainwell scored four touchdowns this regular season (including the first of the game in Week 12) and has since added a playoff touchdown, scoring in the Eagles’ 38-7 win over the Giants in the Divisional Round. The Eagles scored a touchdown in all 19 games they’ve played this season, with 12 of those games seeing a rushing touchdown as the team’s first of the day. While Sanders and Hurts lead the way for the Eagles in rushing touchdowns, Gainwell is still an option to score.

Patrick Mahomes

Best Odds: +3300 at BetMGM

He’s done it before, as Mahomes scored the opening touchdown of Super Bowl LIV, however that version of the Kansas City quarterback wasn’t battling an ankle injury. Mahomes hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 16 and has only attempted six rushes for a total of 16 yards in the playoffs after suffering an ankle sprain in the Chiefs’ first postseason game. Between the limited mobility and simply not needing to scramble with so many receiving weapons on his offense, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Mahomes to score the first touchdown of the Super Bowl for a second time.

Eagles Defense

Best Odds: +4000 at BetMGM

There’s been no returns of any kind that found their way into the endzone since 2017 when Robert Alford returned a Tom Brady interception for a touchdown in the first half of Super Bowl LI. The last return touchdown to be the first touchdown of a Super Bowl was in 2015 when a Von Miller strip sack of Cam Newton turned into a defensive touchdown. Interestingly enough, the Eagles defense has accounted for two defensive touchdowns this season, including one that was the first touchdown of their Week 16 matchup. The biggest problem with Philadelphia’s defense scoring the first touchdown of the Super Bowl is that the Chiefs haven’t given up a single defensive score all season long.

Chiefs Defense/Special Teams

Best Odds: +4100 at Fanduel

The Chiefs’ defense has scored twice this season, but never as the first score of the game. The Eagles’ offense has given up three defensive touchdowns this season, though. Neither team has recorded a kick or punt return for touchdown this season and the Super Bowl hasn’t seen a kick return touchdown since 2014 when Percy Harvin scored for the Seahawks in their Super Bowl rout of the Broncos. Scoring a return touchdown is hard enough. Then magnifying that to the pressure of the Super Bowl makes it nearly impossible. Now add that it needs to be first? This bet is only for the gutsiest of bettors.

No Touchdown

Best Odds: +42000 at Fanduel

While this prop provides far and away the best payout ($100 would win $42,000), that’s likely because no Super Bowl has ever finished without at least one team scoring a touchdown. In fact, both teams have scored a touchdown in all but two Super Bowls. With two of the most potent offenses in the league facing off, with neither the Chiefs nor Eagles failing to score a touchdown in any of their 19 games so far this season, we’re not counting on this one to happen. 

My pick: Jalen Hurts (+1000 on BetMGM)

With several solid options on both teams for a player to score the game’s first touchdown, being the one to actually score first may come down to something even harder to predict: who will have the ball first. Referring back to my pick for the coin toss, I feel relatively good about the Eagles’ chances of getting the ball first (thanks to Kansas City deferring the kickoff) and then scoring right away. The Chiefs give up the third-most rushing yards to quarterbacks in the entire NFL and Hurts already leads his team in rushing touchdowns and touchdowns to begin the game. Heck, there’s even a chance Hurts is on the receiving end of another Philly Special in the Super Bowl and catches a touchdown like his predecessor Nick Foles.