Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/14)

Fact checked at 7:43 AM ET, Oct 14, 2026

Odds as of Oct 14, 7:39 AM ET

Two teams with one conference win between them meet in Huntsville on Wednesday night. Western Kentucky (2-4, 1-1 in Conference USA) is coming off a 34-13 win over Missouri State and is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the moneyline at -125 against +105 for Sam Houston (1-4, 0-1). The Hilltoppers opened at -112 on the moneyline, and the total has climbed from an opening 51 to 52.5. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium on ESPN, with both teams on six days' rest, and it's Sam Houston's Conference USA home opener.

Western Kentucky still hasn't settled on a quarterback. Rodney Tisdale Jr. sat out the Missouri State game while he heals from a pair of ankle injuries, and coach Tyson Helton has called him "game ready." Brock Glenn ran the offense in that win and piled up 326 yards of total offense. The conference availability report for this game hadn't posted.

Neither offense has scored much against teams at its own level. These two have played six games against FBS opponents outside the Power Four, and five of them finished under 52.5. Western Kentucky lost 49-14 at Nevada and 34-13 at New Mexico State, then beat Missouri State 34-13. Sam Houston lost 24-21 at Troy, 23-17 to Tulsa and 35-3 at Liberty. We expect a close game played mostly on the ground, with Sam Houston hanging around and feeding Alton McCaskill. Both picks cash in that game.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 52.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Alton McCaskill 30+ Rushing Yards (-158)

PICK #1: Under 52.5 (-108)

Away from home, Western Kentucky has scored 14, 20, 0 and 13 points. That's 47 points in four road games. Sam Houston has 17 in its last two (3 at Liberty, 14 at Texas Tech), and its losses to Troy and Tulsa produced 45 and 40 total points. The Bearkats also defend the pass well: 139.0 yards a game, fourth nationally according to the school, and 5.56 yards per attempt.

The total has gone up 1.5 points since it opened, with 54% of tickets and 56% of the money on the Over, so Under bettors get a better number now than they would have at the open. The -108 price puts the break-even at 51.9%.

The danger is the run game on both sides. Western Kentucky gives up 204.0 rushing yards a game at 6.0 a carry, Sam Houston gives up 211.6 at 5.5, and the Hilltoppers ran for a season-high 233 against Missouri State. Tisdale also threw for 303 and 315 yards in his last two starts, but the 315-yard night at New Mexico State still produced only 13 points.

PICK #2: Alton McCaskill 30+ Rushing Yards (-158)

Western Kentucky has struggled to stop the run all year. Nevada ran for 323 yards against the Hilltoppers, Georgia for 234, Indiana for 233, Mercyhurst for 92, New Mexico State for 206 and Missouri State for 136, and every opponent's leading rusher finished with between 58 and 155 yards. McCaskill has gone for 36, 25, 41, 48 and 51 yards, newest first. The only game where he missed 30 was the 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. A -158 price works out to 61.2%.

His workload is less certain. Sam Houston averages 101 rushing yards a game at 3.3 a carry, McCaskill's workload has fallen from 13 and 14 carries to 8, 8 and 7, and freshman MJ Dowdy led the team with 11 carries at Liberty. Coach Phil Longo said this week that "you'll see more of him as the season goes on." Even so, McCaskill got to 36 yards on 7 carries in that Liberty game. If the game stays close, Sam Houston keeps running. If it falls behind early, it will have to throw.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.