Washington vs. USC Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:33 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:47 AM ET

Both of these teams just lost for the first time. No. 18 USC (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) dropped six spots in the AP poll after Oregon won 41-27 at the Coliseum. Washington (3-1, 0-1) fell 27-24 at home to Minnesota after going down 14-0 in the first quarter. The bigger story is USC's defense. It has allowed 35 and 41 points in two Big Ten games, and now it loses linebacker Desman Stephens II, who has started all five. He was ejected for targeting in the second quarter against Oregon and is suspended for this game, with Ta'Mere Robinson listed in his spot. The offense is banged up as well. Receiver Corey Simms is out for the season, receiver Trent Mosley and left guard Hayden Treter are doubtful, and tight end Mark Bowman, defensive tackle Alex VanSumeren and nickel back Alex Graham are questionable. The conference's game-day availability report hasn't come out yet. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams Jr. have started every game for their teams and should start again. USC opened -10 and is now -8.5; the total has climbed from 57.5 to 58.5. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT) Saturday at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on NBC. Expect sun and temperatures near 100 at kickoff, with an extreme heat warning in effect.

Washington vs. USC Predictions

• Pick #1: Washington +8.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Demond Williams Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+105)

PICK #1: Washington +8.5 (-108)

USC needs to win by nine, and its defense hasn't stopped a single Big Ten offense yet.

The Trojans have allowed 132 points in five games, 26.4 a game: 26 to San Jose State, zero to Fresno State, 30 to Louisiana, 35 at Rutgers and 41 to Oregon. Stephens started the first four of those, so the 26, 0, 30 and 35 all came with him as a starter. Against Oregon he was tossed in the second quarter with the Ducks holding only a field goal. They scored 38 of their 41 after that, with backup Dylan Raiola at quarterback once Dante Moore was hurt. Jadyn Walker took the middle that night. This week Robinson, who has five tackles all season, is listed as the starter, and freshman Talanoa Ili backs him up. That's one more thing going wrong for a defense that already gave up 38 without Stephens.

USC has been a bad bet as a favorite, too. It's 1-3 against the spread when laying points. It beat Rutgers by 7 as a 21.5-point favorite and Louisiana by 19 laying 30.5. The 27 it scored against Oregon was its lowest output of the year, in its first game without Simms, and Mosley (five touchdowns in three games) is doubtful. Meanwhile Washington's defense has given up 10 to Washington State, 14 to Utah State, 16 to FCS Eastern Washington and 27 to Minnesota, all at home. That's 16.8 points and about 289 yards a game, with six interceptions. Cornerback Manny Karnley and nickel back Rahshawn Clark are expected back in the starting secondary, after Minnesota threw three touchdown passes against the backups.

There's a real case against. Washington is 0-4 against the spread, all at home as a favorite of 12.5 to 42.5 points, and that includes a 16-14 escape against Utah State while laying about 28. Minnesota sacked Williams seven times, held the Huskies to 40 rushing yards and let them convert 1 of 10 third downs. This is also Washington's first road game, and it's in serious heat. USC still averages 39.8 points, Maiava has 1,499 passing yards and 14 touchdowns, and one tracker has 84% of spread bets and 79% of the money on the Trojans.

The price is as posted at 6:47 AM ET, and -108 implies 51.9%. Washington moneyline (+285) is the upset play if you want it. This one cashes on a USC win by eight or fewer, or any Washington win.

PICK #2: Demond Williams Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+105)

USC has already let quarterbacks run in touchdowns this year, and Washington's most productive runner is its quarterback, with the running backs behind him hurt.

Strip out the sacks and Williams has 30 runs for 220 yards and two touchdowns, a 5-yarder against Washington State and a 13-yarder against Minnesota. The official line reads 40 carries for 165 yards because 10 sacks count against it (two against Utah State, one against Eastern Washington, seven against Minnesota). By game he has run 7, 9, 6 and 8 times. Jordan Washington, Quaid Carr, Jayden Limar and Julian McMahan, all scholarship backs, have been lost to injury, McMahan just before the Minnesota game. Freshman Brian Bonner Jr. has 126 yards on 22 carries and hasn't scored, and against Minnesota he and Trey Cooley combined for 28 yards on 11 carries.

USC has given up nine rushing touchdowns in five games. Quarterbacks have three of them: San Jose State's Luke Weaver from 7 yards, and Louisiana's Lunch Winfield from 1 and 32 yards in a game where he ran 14 times for 91. Seven of the nine came from 7 yards or closer.

Here's what could go wrong. Williams has scored in only two of four games. Washington has 13 offensive touchdowns, eight through the air and five on the ground, and he has two of the five. Freshman Ansu Sanoe has two short rushing touchdowns of his own, a 1-yarder against Utah State and another against Eastern Washington. A line that allowed seven sacks to Minnesota can kill drives before the goal line, and center Landen Hatchett, who hasn't played this season after breaking his wrist last fall, was questionable on Wednesday's report. This also assumes Williams starts.

That +105 (as of 6:47 AM ET) prices him at 48.8% to score. Sanoe at +475 makes sense if you think the goal-line carry goes his way again. This and the spread both need Washington to score on USC, but they pay out differently. The spread wins any time USC wins by eight or fewer. This one needs Williams himself in the end zone. A 34-27 USC win cashes both only if he runs one in, and a USC win by nine or more kills the spread no matter what Williams does.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.