Fact checked at 5:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Golden State (8-3) has won eight straight since an 0-3 start, and it brings the league's second-best scoring average, 120.4 points a game, to Houston for a 9:30 PM ET tip at Toyota Center. The Rockets (8-3, 5-1 at home) are 6.5-point favorites and the total is 222. That 120.4 needs context. The Warriors just finished a six-game homestand against defenses that all rank 17th or worse in points allowed, and three guards who scored 18.6 of those points a game are on the latest injury report. Gary Payton II and Brandon Williams are out, and Will Richard is questionable with a torn thumb ligament. Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis remain out and have not played this season. Houston allows 106.4 points a game, fifth-fewest in the league, and plays at a bottom-five pace. Both picks bet on a slower, lower-scoring game than Golden State has been playing.
Warriors vs. Rockets Predictions
Pick #1Draymond Green Under 9.5 Points + Rebounds−111
Green has taken 27 shots in nine games. He leads Golden State with 7.6 assists a game and leaves the scoring to Stephen Curry, Yaxel Lendeborg and Brandin Podziemski, so he averages 2.8 points and has not scored more than five in any game. Add 4.9 rebounds and his season average is 7.7 points plus rebounds, almost two below this line.
He has finished under 9.5 in seven of his nine games, against a -111 price that implies 52.6%. The last five went 6, 8, 7, 8 and 5. The two exceptions were a 10 against Memphis and a 12 at Minnesota, and both came in his first four games.
Extra rebounds are also hard to find against Houston. Rockets opponents average 40.0 a game, second-fewest in the league.
The injuries shouldn't add to his load, because the Warriors who are hurt are guards. Green's frontcourt partners (Lendeborg, Gui Santos, Al Horford and Charles Bassey) are all available, so the rebounds still get shared. Two nights ago, with Payton and Richard out and Williams hurt after two minutes, Green had 5 in 21 minutes of a blowout win over New Orleans. His longest game of the season, 34 minutes in an overtime win over Orlando, produced 8. He is expected to start, as he has in all nine games he has played.
Pick #2Under 222−110
Golden State makes 16.5 threes a game on 40.3% shooting, both league highs. Houston's opponents shoot 31.3% from three, tied for the lowest mark in the league. On the homestand the Warriors hit 42.9% from three and averaged 122.7 points against the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Heat, Magic and Pelicans, none of whom ranks better than 17th in points allowed. In the five games before the homestand they shot 36.9% from three and averaged 117.6.
The offense is thinner tonight as well. Payton, Williams and Richard have scored 205 of Golden State's 1,324 points this season.
Houston helps keep the number down. The Rockets have scored 110 or fewer in four straight games, and four of their last five finished under 222, with totals of 217, 202, 224, 201 and 210. Reserve centers Steven Adams and Clint Capela are out again, but Houston allowed 93, 117, 102 and 100 in the last four games without them. Golden State's defense has held three of its last six opponents to 100 or fewer.
The case against starts with Golden State's shooting. Eight of the Warriors' 11 games have gone over 222, they have scored at least 112 in nine straight, and Curry averages 30.6 points with 25 or more in each of his last four games. They scored 138 two nights ago with the three guards barely involved, though that was against New Orleans, which allows the second-most points in the league.
On the total, 63% of the money is on the Under from 52% of the bets. The -110 price means a 52.4% break-even.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
