Fact checked at 5:47 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026Odds as of 4:54 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026
Oklahoma City (8-3) and Portland (7-3) are back at the Moda Center for the second night in a row, with a 10:00 PM ET tip. Portland won last night's game 123-103. It was tied 59-59 at halftime before the Trail Blazers took the third quarter 38-21 and led by as many as 22. Oklahoma City is a 1.5-point favorite anyway. The Thunder played without Chet Holmgren, who is on an 8-to-10-week timetable with a knee injury, and without Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, both out long term after surgery. Without them the Thunder give up far more points than they did, and most of their own scoring comes from three guards. We're betting on both halves of that, with Portland and the points and with the Under on the Thunder's starting center.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Predictions
Pick #1Trail Blazers +1.5−111
Last night was Oklahoma City's third road loss by 20 or more since Holmgren and Williams went down. The others were 120-96 at Dallas and 119-98 at Houston. In the three games those two played, the Thunder allowed 96.3 points a game. In the eight since, it's 109.5, and six of the eight opponents scored at least 112. Memphis and Washington were the exceptions.
Portland is third in the league in scoring at 119.7 a game, and its 123 came from a lot of places. Damian Lillard scored 25 in 24 minutes, Deni Avdija had 24 points and eight assists, and Sidy Cissoko added 17 as a starter, all without Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe. Tired legs shouldn't favor either side tonight. Nobody on either team played more than 34 minutes, and Lillard, Avdija and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander all played both nights of a back-to-back last week.
Portland has won seven of its 10 games, and +1.5 also covers a one-point loss. The -111 price implies a 52.6% chance. Portland has also drawn 61% of the spread bets and 85% of the spread money.
The Blazers probably won't shoot like that again: 19 of 50 on threes, 24 of 26 at the line. Gilgeous-Alexander should be better, too. He went 8-for-22 with four missed threes and sat the whole fourth quarter, after scoring 43 and 42 in two games against Cleveland last week. Portland is also just 2-2 at home, with losses by 21 and 22 points to Memphis and San Antonio. If he gets going, a point and a half won't go far.
Pick #2Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Points−104
Over his last five games Hartenstein has more assists (26) than shot attempts (25). He scored 5, 3, 2, 2 and 7 in them, and the 7 last night came on 3-of-6 shooting in 24 minutes. He has started all 11 games at center, averages 6.9 points and has stayed under this number in seven of the 11.
That's how the Thunder play without their stars. Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain take most of the shots, and Hartenstein passes and rebounds. The touches inside have gone to rookie Aday Mara, who has 56 points on 38 shots over the same five games while playing 18 to 27 minutes. Portland brings a problem of its own in Donovan Clingan. He had 13 rebounds and two blocks last night, and the Blazers held Oklahoma City to 38 points in the paint, its fewest in those five games.
Holmgren's absence isn't what made Hartenstein a low scorer. He had 4, 6 and 12 in the three games Holmgren played. He also played both nights of last week's back-to-back, 26 minutes in Memphis and 18 against Washington.
The market favors the Over. Hartenstein scored 15, 10 and 10 in the first three games after the injuries, and he's shooting 44.9% after making 62.2% last season, so a few more finishes at the rim would get him to 9. At -104, the break-even is 51.0%. With the role he has now, the Under should win more often than that.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
