Virginia vs. Wake Forest Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/31)

Fact checked at 9:41 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

Odds as of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

No. 14 Wake Forest (6-1, 4-1 ACC) hosts Virginia (4-4, 2-3) at 3:45 PM ET at Allegacy Financial Stadium on ESPN2. We expect Virginia's short-handed offense to stall while Wake's passing game does the damage, and all three picks run through that passing game.

Virginia has averaged 16.0 points over its last four games, and starting running back Jekail Middlebrook is Out on the latest ACC report. Rico Flores Jr. is done for the season, and leading receiver Kameron Courtney is Doubtful. Wake allows 92.4 rushing yards a game and 2.9 a carry, and Beau Pribula has been sacked 24 times with no touchdown pass in his last two games. Wake comes off a bye after outscoring its last three opponents 136-24. The Deacons opened -13.5 and are now -12.5 (-110). The total has dropped from 49.5 to 47.5 with most of the money on the Under, a number that fits a game where one team does most of the scoring. The kickoff forecast is mostly cloudy and 65 degrees with light wind.

Virginia vs. Wake Forest Predictions

• Pick #1: Gio Lopez 250+ Passing Yards (-128)
• Pick #2: Carlos Hernandez Anytime TD (+100)
• Pick #3: Jack Foley Anytime TD (+180)

PICK #1: Gio Lopez 250+ Passing Yards (-128)

Lopez has cleared 250 in five of seven starts, and none was close: 265, 267, 303, 312 and 350. Both misses were 225, at Purdue and Louisville. Seven games isn't a big sample, but he's averaging 278.1 yards a game and 9.4 a throw with 17 touchdowns and one interception, and -128 implies a 56.1% chance.

Virginia has given up 256 passing yards to Duke, 251 to SMU and 267 to Syracuse in its last three games, and its secondary comes in thin. Safeties Corey Costner and Ethan Minter are Doubtful, safeties Brandyn Hillman and Keke Adams are Questionable, and cornerback Omillio Agard and defensive back Alex Dunn are Out. Lopez isn't on the report. Big leads haven't cost him yards either. He threw for 265 in the 57-3 win over Stanford and 267 in the 41-7 win at Cal, with backup Steele Pizzella getting throws in both.

Virginia's season numbers push back. It allows 184.8 passing yards a game, leads the ACC in pass-efficiency defense and has eight interceptions. Lopez also threw only 19 passes at Louisville, where Wake ran for 177 yards, so a run-heavy plan could leave him short.

PICK #2: Carlos Hernandez Anytime TD (+100)

Hernandez is Lopez's top target, with 49 catches for 720 yards in six games, and no Wake player has more receiving yards. He has scored in four of those six, including a 77-yarder at Louisville and a 6-yarder at NC State, where he caught 12 passes in his last game with a catch. That's 66.7% over a small sample, and even money implies 50.0%.

Wake has finished 23 of its 33 red-zone trips with touchdowns, and four Virginia safeties are Doubtful or Questionable.

His health is the risk. He's Probable with an undisclosed injury and had no catch at Cal, though he's coming off a bye and a Virginia beat preview expects him to play. If he's ruled out, this pick is off. He also went without a touchdown against Purdue and Stanford despite 88 and 87 yards.

PICK #3: Jack Foley Anytime TD (+180)

Foley fits the same game at a longer price. He has scored in four of Wake's last five games: a 23-yarder against Miami, a 4-yarder against Stanford, a 10-yarder at NC State and a 29-yarder at Cal. Three of those came with Hernandez playing, and both scored against Miami and at NC State. At +180 the implied probability is 35.7%.

Foley had no catch at Akron, Purdue or Louisville, which leaves him at four touchdowns in seven games, and he caught just three passes in each of the Stanford and Cal games. His 20 catches for 373 yards show how much he does with few chances.

Virginia allows only 19.6 points a game, and Wake can spread its scoring around. Tight end Dominick Barry caught three touchdowns at Cal, and Lopez has six rushing touchdowns of his own.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.