Valkyries vs. Dream Prediction, WNBA Finals Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:46 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:45 AM ET

The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 and move to Atlanta for Games 3 and 4 of the best-of-seven series. Golden State won the opener 68-64 on Saturday, Oct. 17, and Atlanta answered with a 79-65 win on Monday, Oct. 19, both at Chase Center. Both finished well under their closing totals.

That is Golden State's doing. The Valkyries went 32-12 and allowed 75.1 points a game, the fewest in the league, while scoring 82.2, tied for 13th of 15 teams. Atlanta went 30-14, scoring 91.3 a game (third) and allowing 84.5 (fourth-fewest). Golden State also swept the three regular-season meetings, including an 88-83 win in Atlanta on July 4.

Game 2 showed how Atlanta can score against that defense anyway. The Dream shot 21-for-62 from the field and 7-for-25 from three and still won by 14. Angel Reese had 30 points and 16 rebounds, Atlanta went 30-for-35 at the free-throw line to Golden State's 16-for-19, and the Valkyries turned it over 19 times. Allisha Gray added 18 points, 7 of them at the line.

Atlanta is a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 151.5 after opening at 150.5. Brionna Jones (left leg) is out again for Atlanta; she has not played in the semifinals or the Finals. Gray missed the last two semifinal games with a left hand injury and had a minor procedure, but she has played 33 and 34 minutes in the Finals. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena.

We expect Atlanta's offense at home to run through its two leading scorers: Reese inside, Gray on the wing and at the line. Golden State will make them work for every look, but both get enough shots and free throws to clear these numbers on a cold shooting night. Both picks need Atlanta's top two to play their usual minutes, so foul trouble for either one is the risk they share.

Valkyries vs. Dream Predictions

• Pick #1: Angel Reese Over 14.5 Points (-125)
• Pick #2: Allisha Gray Over 16.5 Points (-109)

PICK #1: Angel Reese Over 14.5 Points (-125)

At home this season, Reese averaged 17.5 points and scored 15 or more in 16 of 21 regular-season games. Over the full year she averaged 16.4 in 31.1 minutes and cleared 14.5 in 28 of 43 games, and in the playoffs she is at 19.1 a game, over this line in five of seven.

The Finals have given her more of the load, not less. She played 35 and 34 minutes, and with Jones out, Atlanta's other starting forward, Naz Hillmon, has scored 5 and 2. Her Game 2 line (10-for-16 from the field, 9-for-11 at the line) didn't depend on outside shooting, and Atlanta kept finding her out of the pick-and-roll. At -125 the market gives her a 55.6% chance. Her home record says she does better than that.

Two things can sink it. Golden State held her to 14 in Game 1, all of it before halftime, and she scored 10, 15 and 17 in the regular-season meetings. She has also been called for five fouls in each Finals game and fouled out of the July 4 game in Atlanta. Long stretches on the bench would take her volume with them.

PICK #2: Allisha Gray Over 16.5 Points (-109)

The -109 price implies a 52.2% chance. Gray cleared 16.5 in 29 of 44 regular-season games, about two of every three, and led Atlanta at 19.0 points a game. At home she averaged 19.2 and went over this number in 15 of 22.

The hand hasn't cut into her minutes or her shots. She scored 19 in Game 1 on 5-for-19 shooting and 18 in Game 2 on 4-for-11, and she got there both times by going 15-for-16 at the line. A guard who keeps attacking and drawing fouls doesn't need a hot shooting night to reach 17. Atlanta lived at the line in Game 2 with 35 attempts, and eight of them were hers.

Golden State has been a harder matchup for her. She scored 8, 14 and 22 in the regular-season meetings, which makes her three of five over this line against the Valkyries. If her jumper stays cold and the whistle evens out, 16.5 is a fair test. We still think her shots and free throws follow her minutes, and she has played 33 or more in both Finals games.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.