Valkyries vs. Aces Prediction, WNBA Semifinals Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/9)

Fact checked at 8:48 AM ET, Oct 9, 2026

Odds as of Oct 9, 7:52 AM ET

The Las Vegas Aces are one loss from the end of their title defense. Golden State took Games 1 and 2 of this best-of-five semifinal at Chase Center, 71-60 on Sunday and 83-81 on Wednesday, and the Valkyries need one more win to reach the Finals in their second season. Las Vegas has to win three straight, starting at home tonight. If there is a Game 4, it is Sunday in Las Vegas.

Game 2 should worry the Aces more than the final score does. Golden State led by 17 in the third quarter. Las Vegas clawed all the way back and took its first lead, 76-74, on an A'ja Wilson basket inside the final two minutes, but Gabby Williams tied it right away and Veronica Burton's 3-pointer with 41 seconds left put the Valkyries ahead for good. Wilson has scored 24 in both games. The rest of the offense has not shown up. The Aces shot 34% in Game 1 for a season-low 60 points and 44% in Game 2, Jackie Young has 25 points on 6-for-22 shooting in the series, and Golden State's bench outscored the Las Vegas bench 34-14 on Wednesday, with Tiffany Hayes scoring 21.

Then there is the health question. Jewell Loyd and Stephanie Talbot are both questionable with left leg injuries on the league's injury report. Loyd played 17 scoreless minutes in Game 1 and missed Game 2. Talbot missed Game 1, then started Game 2 and scored 10. NaLyssa Smith has been out since August and is done for the season. Dana Evans returned in Game 2 and scored 5 in 18 minutes. Golden State has nobody on the report and has started the same five in all five of its playoff games. Wilson did collect her fifth MVP award on Thursday, which is a reminder of what the Aces still have.

The consensus line is Las Vegas -4 (-113), with the Valkyries +4 at -108, and books are split between -3.5 and -4.5. The total is 156.5. The Aces are -180 on the moneyline and Golden State is +150. The Aces have drawn 72% of the spread money on 58% of the bets, and 66% of the bets and 63% of the money are on the Over. Tipoff is 9:30 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, on Peacock and NBC Sports Network.

Our read: Golden State's defense travels. The Valkyries hold a thinned-out Aces rotation in the 70s or low 80s again, Williams carries the Golden State offense, and the game comes down to a possession or two either way. That is the game all three of these bets need.

Valkyries vs. Aces Predictions

• Pick #1: Valkyries +4 (-108)
• Pick #2: Under 156.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Gabby Williams Over 19.5 Points (-112)

PICK #1: Valkyries +4 (-108)

Two games into this series, Golden State has been the better team, and the number has not caught up.

The Valkyries won Game 1 by 11 and Game 2 by 2. They won the glass 52-25 and then 30-25. They held Las Vegas to 60 and 81 points on 34% and 44% shooting. None of that is a fluke: Golden State allowed 75.1 points per game in the regular season, the fewest in the league and 7.6 fewer than second-place Washington. The Aces' three regular-season wins over the Valkyries (91-81, 84-79 and 92-73, all in May and June) came with Smith healthy, and she has been out since Aug. 23. Loyd, the Aces' first player off the bench at 8.0 points a game, is questionable. So is Talbot, a starting forward. On Wednesday the Las Vegas bench produced 14 points.

Look at the money, too. The Aces have 72% of the spread money on 58% of the bets, and yet the number still sits at -4, with several books at -3.5. A line that refuses to move toward the heavy money usually means the other side is getting respect from the bettors books listen to. Golden State went 15-7 on the road in the regular season; Las Vegas went 15-7 at home. At -108, the Valkyries plus the points implies a 51.9% chance, and we think the true number is higher.

What beats this bet is the version of the Aces that won seven straight to close the regular season and beat Indiana 102-85 and 94-83 at home in the first round. Wilson, who just won her fifth MVP, has 24 points in each game of this series on 17-of-37 shooting while averaging 28.8 for the playoffs, and Las Vegas swept the season series. If Loyd and Talbot both play, the rotation looks a lot more like the one that scored 91.5 points a game. A couple of books have the Valkyries at +4.5 (-115), and the extra half point is worth paying for.

PICK #2: Under 156.5 (-110)

Golden State wins by taking points off the board, not by putting them on it, and a short Las Vegas rotation makes that job easier.

The Valkyries allowed 75.1 points per game in the regular season, the fewest in the league, and scored 82.2, tied for the second-fewest. The two games in this series produced 131 and 164 points, and the 164 came with the teams combining to make 48 of 53 free throws. The Aces' 60 in Game 1 was their lowest output of the season. Golden State's own offense has not exactly cooked either: 26-of-69 in Game 1 and 24-of-58 in Game 2. Without Loyd, the Aces got 14 bench points on Wednesday and needed Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Young for 57 of their 81. At -110 the Under works out to a 52.4% implied chance. Some books have 157.5, and that is the better number for the same bet.

The Over is the public side, with 66% of the bets and 63% of the money, and the public is not crazy. The Aces scored 91.5 points per game in the regular season, second in the league, and put up 102 and 94 at home against Indiana in the first round. All three regular-season meetings went over 156.5 (172, 163 and 165 combined points), though those came with Smith and Loyd in the rotation. Golden State's first-round games against Dallas reached 184 and 208 (the 208 in overtime) before a 150. An elimination game can also turn foul-heavy, and free throws are what pushed Game 2 over.

PICK #3: Gabby Williams Over 19.5 Points (-112)

The Aces have not found an answer for Williams, and when games tighten, Golden State's offense runs through her.

She scored 25 in Game 1 and 20 in Game 2. In five playoff games she has gone 20, 25, 19, 36 and 20, newest first, for 24.0 points a game, with four of the five over this line. Against Las Vegas this season she has scored 20, 27, 10, 25 and 20 in order, four of five over 19.5 again. Her minutes have climbed from 25.1 in the regular season to 31.8 in the playoffs, and she played 34 and 30 in this series. The book makes the Over a 52.8% proposition at -112.

The caveat is that 19.5 sits well above her regular-season average of 14.4, so the playoff version of her is already in the price. Her one miss against the Aces was a 10-point game in 21 minutes in Las Vegas in June, and she needed 17 shots for her 20 on Wednesday. A blowout either way would cut her minutes, though she still scored 20 in 27 minutes in a 24-point win over Dallas. She also scored 25 in the 131-point game, so this does not need a shootout to land. It needs Golden State to keep going to her when it matters, which is exactly what has happened in this series.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.