UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:40 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:13 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

UTSA (7-1, 4-0 American) visits Florida Atlantic (5-3, 2-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, on ESPN. The Roadrunners are 7-point favorites and the total is 72.5. They've won five straight and are coming off their open week. The Owls are playing their third game in less than two weeks.

Florida Atlantic should get its points, because Caden Veltkamp's offense almost always does. The difference is UTSA's backfield running through the second-worst run defense in FBS, and the Roadrunners pulling away after halftime. Something like 42-31 cashes all three picks: the Over, UTSA covering, and Will Henderson III piling up yards while UTSA sits on a lead. Owen McCown and Veltkamp are both expected to start at quarterback. The forecast for this open-air stadium is clear and in the upper 70s with a light northeast wind, so the weather won't slow anyone down.

UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 72.5 (-111)
• Pick #2: UTSA -7 (-110)
• Pick #3: Will Henderson 80+ Rushing Yards (-176)

PICK #1: Over 72.5 (-111)

Florida Atlantic's last three games ended 56-24 at Army, 51-49 over Rice and 48-41 at North Texas. That's 80, 100 and 89 points. Veltkamp leads the nation in completions per game, Easton Messer leads it with 74 catches, and the Owls average 37.8 points. After watching the North Texas game, UTSA coach Jeff Traylor said the Owls are "snapping it faster now." A faster Florida Atlantic offense also means more possessions for UTSA.

The Owls' defense makes it easier. It gives up 255.1 rushing yards a game at 6.2 a carry, 137th of 138 FBS teams, and it allowed 48 or more in each of those three games. UTSA scored 42 at Tulane and 38 against Navy in its last two.

At -111 the Over implies a 52.6% chance, and UTSA's own history is the hurdle. Only one of its seven games against FBS teams, the 59-45 win over Colorado State, went past 72.5, and its defense has allowed 26.0 points a game. This bet needs UTSA to play Florida Atlantic's kind of game. The Owls' pace and their run defense are why we expect it to. The Over has 63% of the bets and 80% of the money.

PICK #2: UTSA -7 (-110)

Florida Atlantic can't stop the run, and running is what UTSA does best. The Roadrunners average 184.9 rushing yards behind an offensive line on the Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll, and they ran for 223 yards and six touchdowns in the 42-19 win at Tulane. North Texas isn't an option team, and it still ran for 233 yards at 6.5 a carry against the Owls in their last game. A team that can run when it wants can hold a lead against an offense that needs the ball back.

UTSA also forced six takeaways at Tulane, and Florida Atlantic's 329.6 passing yards a game come with plenty of throws for that secondary to jump. McCown, who passed for 173 yards and ran for a score at Tulane, doesn't need to carry this. UTSA also had a week off. Florida Atlantic didn't.

The price implies 52.4%. The catch is that UTSA's wins have been tight. Only two of its six wins over FBS teams, Colorado State and Tulane, came by more than a touchdown, and Florida Atlantic is 4-0 at home. UTSA has 35% of the spread bets and 27% of the money. One late Owls touchdown can turn a comfortable lead into a push.

PICK #3: Will Henderson 80+ Rushing Yards (-176)

Henderson has reached 80 in five of UTSA's seven games against FBS opponents: 80 at Texas State, 89 against Colorado State, 90 at Rice, 86 against USF and 102 at Tulane. He averaged 14.3 carries and 5.6 yards a carry in those games, and he ran for 101 in the opener against FCS UT Rio Grande Valley. He's listed as UTSA's starting back, and no injury has been reported.

His two misses fit our story. He had 38 yards on 10 carries in the 30-6 loss at Texas, UTSA's only loss, and 78 against Navy in a 38-34 game where UTSA threw for 359. That Navy game is the real risk. If Florida Atlantic drags UTSA into a passing race, his carries shrink. A'Marion Peterson and Brandon High Jr. also get work, and Peterson scored twice at Tulane.

At -176 you need him to get there 63.8% of the time. He's at 71% against FBS teams, and Florida Atlantic's run defense is the second-worst he'll face this season. The worst, Colorado State, gave him 89 on 14 carries. If UTSA leads in the second half, he should get the ball plenty.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.