Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:40 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:13 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Golden State hosts Miami at Chase Center at 10:00 PM ET, and the Heat walk in on fumes. They played overtime at the Clippers the night before and won 117-116 when Klay Thompson hit a 3 with one second left. Bam Adebayo scored 35 and Giannis Antetokounmpo had 27 points and 14 rebounds, and both played 41 minutes. Davion Mitchell played 43. Golden State hasn't played since beating Phoenix three nights ago, and it has won five straight after an 0-3 start. Our read is a rested team pulling away from a tired one that doesn't defend, with Brandin Podziemski getting his usual share of the points. So we're on the Warriors to cover and Podziemski to clear his scoring line.

Golden State has ruled out Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis (not with the team) and Gui Santos. Butler, Moody and Porzingis haven't played at all during the winning streak, and Santos sat out the Phoenix win. Antetokounmpo has been playing through a sprained right wrist he hurt against the Lakers.

Heat vs. Warriors Predictions

• Pick #1: Brandin Podziemski Over 16.5 Points (-108)
• Pick #2: Warriors -7.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Brandin Podziemski Over 16.5 Points (-108)

Podziemski has been the steadiest scorer in Golden State's rotation. He's gone over 16.5 in five of his six games this season, scoring 18, 18, 8, 21, 17 and 20, and he averages 17.0 points in 33.5 minutes. He has started the last five games, played 32 to 37 minutes in each, and is expected to start again.

Miami is a good opponent for that kind of volume. The Heat allow 122.9 points a game, 27th in the league, and gave up 138 to the Lakers in the game before the Clippers win. A second night of a back-to-back won't tighten that up.

At -108 the Over implies a 51.9% chance. The one miss was 8 points at Minnesota on 2-of-5 shooting, so the floor drops fast when his shots don't come. His other risk is a game that gets out of hand early and sends the starters to the bench. It hasn't cost him yet: in Golden State's two biggest wins, by 20 at Denver and 17 against the Lakers, he played 33 minutes both times and scored 18 and 21.

PICK #2: Warriors -7.5 (-110)

Five Miami players logged 35 or more minutes in that overtime game, and this is a team that's 3-5 and has allowed 113 or more in all eight of its games. Golden State's streak includes wins by 20 at Denver, 17 against the Lakers and 12 against the Clippers, the last two at home.

At -110 the price implies 52.4%, and this isn't a cheap number. Golden State has won by eight or more in three of its eight games, all during this streak, and it beat Minnesota by just 5 and Phoenix by 3. One projection model sees a much closer game than this spread does. Miami also has Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, who just combined for 62 points, plus Thompson, whose shooting can swing a margin on its own. We think the extra rest and Miami's defense win out, especially in the fourth quarter.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.