Cal Poly vs. Arizona Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:37 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:33 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Arizona plays its home opener against Cal Poly at 10:30 PM ET at McKale Center at ALKEME Arena, on truTV. The Wildcats, last season's Final Four team, are 0-1 after an 84-75 loss to No. 22 UCLA in Las Vegas, their first loss in a season opener since 2006. Cal Poly played at the fastest tempo in Division I last season, and that suits Arizona just fine. The Wildcats should run away in a fast game, so we're laying the big number and taking the Over.

Cal Poly is 1-0, but the win came against Division II Cal State San Marcos and doesn't tell us much. Most of what follows draws on last season, and we label it that way. The Mustangs bring back 13 players and 83.2% of their scoring, so last season's numbers carry more weight than usual. Arizona's lineup is expected to look like it did in the opener. RJ Godfrey, a Clemson transfer expected to start at power forward, remains ineligible and didn't play against UCLA either.

Cal Poly vs. Arizona Predictions

• Pick #1: Arizona -30.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Over 173.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Arizona -30.5 (-115)

Arizona didn't take it easy on overmatched visitors last season. It played seven home games against low-major teams and won all seven by 26 or more, four of them by 34 or more: 107-71 over Bethune-Cookman, 98-61 over Norfolk State, 96-62 over Abilene Christian and 84-49 over Northern Arizona. Denver (103-73), South Dakota State (99-71) and Utah Tech (93-67) stayed inside this number.

Cal Poly is careless with the ball, which is a problem against a team that wants to run. The Mustangs turned it over on nearly 20% of their possessions last season, then gave it away 25 times against Cal State San Marcos, a Division II team. They also allowed 85 points a game on the way to a 14-19 record. On the road against power-conference teams last season, they lost by 30 at USC and by 21 at UCLA, though they did win at Utah.

Arizona's loss to UCLA had more in it than the score shows. The Wildcats made 8 of 28 shots in the first half and 7 of 30 threes for the game, and still put up 46 points after the break. Ivan Kharchenkov had 38 points and 10 rebounds, while center Motiejus Krivas got only four shots. Arizona should go to Krivas a lot more often in this one.

We're not getting a discount. The line has climbed from as low as -28.5, -115 implies a 53.5% chance, and two widely cited ratings project Arizona by 25 and 29, so this needs the high end of that range. Cal Poly made 10.8 threes a game last season, 10th in the country. A hot shooting night, or a long run for the Arizona bench late, can keep this inside 30.

PICK #2: Over 173.5 (-108)

Cal Poly averaged about 74 possessions a game last season, the fastest adjusted tempo in Division I. The Mustangs scored 82.1 points a game and allowed 85.0. In their three road games against power-conference teams, the totals were 158 at USC, 177 at Utah and 195 at UCLA.

That pace helps Arizona's end of the scoreboard most. Extra possessions against a defense that gives up points and an offense that turns it over give the Wildcats a real shot at 100, which they reached twice in those home games against low-majors last season. They get to the line, too: Arizona went 24 of 30 on free throws against UCLA, and Kharchenkov made 12 of 16 by himself.

At -108 you're paying for a 51.9% chance. The total opened at 168.5 and has climbed five points, so the easy value is gone, and the history doesn't all point one way. Arizona's seven home games against low-majors last season averaged 162 combined points, only two went over 173.5, and one projection puts this game at 167. This needs Cal Poly to play its usual game and score in the 70s while Arizona keeps scoring. If the Mustangs slow down to protect the ball, the Over is in trouble.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.