USC vs. Penn State Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:34 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:56 AM ET

No. 19 USC (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) visits Beaver Stadium on Saturday night to face a Penn State team (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) that has lost two straight. The Nittany Lions fell 24-20 to Wisconsin at home, then lost 34-13 at Northwestern last Friday, when they gave up 413 rushing yards on 55 carries. USC beat Washington 25-21 last Saturday, and its only loss was 41-27 to Oregon.

USC has scored at least 25 points in all six of its games and averages 37.3. Penn State scored 20 and 13 in its two Big Ten games. Our read is simple: the Trojans move the ball the way they have every week, with Jayden Maiava throwing it and two backs splitting the carries. All three picks are USC offense props, and all three need that version of the game.

Friday's availability report lists four Penn State defensive ends and three cornerbacks as out. Most of them have barely played or not played at all this season, so don't read that as a fresh hole in the defense. Reserve linebacker Alex Tatsch was added to the out list Friday. On the USC side, left tackle Hayden Treter is doubtful and tight end Mark Bowman is questionable. Maiava, King Miller and Waymond Jordan are not on the report. Rocco Becht is expected to start at quarterback for Penn State after throwing for 243 yards at Northwestern.

Penn State is a 1.5-point favorite at -110, and the moneyline is USC +102, Penn State -122. The total opened at 56.5 in late September and is down to 54.5. Expect a dry, mild night in the 50s with light wind. Kickoff is at 7:30 PM ET on NBC, in front of a White Out crowd.

USC vs. Penn State Predictions

• Pick #1: Jayden Maiava 240+ Passing Yards (-162)
• Pick #2: Waymond Jordan 35+ Rushing Yards (-122)
• Pick #3: King Miller 70+ Rushing Yards (-133)

PICK #1: Jayden Maiava 240+ Passing Yards (-162)

Six games, six times over this number. Maiava has been the quarterback all season, throwing for 286 against San Jose State, 349 against Fresno State, 261 against Louisiana, 277 at Rutgers, 326 against Oregon and 245 against Washington, which works out to 290.7 a game.

The low point is worth a look. Against Washington, USC held the ball for nearly 35 minutes and Maiava only threw 34 times, and he still got to 245. Against Oregon, chasing the game, he threw 42 times for 326. Whether USC is leading or trailing, he has found his way past 240. The price of -162 puts the implied chance at 61.8%.

Penn State's pass defense is the honest worry. Nobody has thrown for more than Wisconsin's 235 against this group, and Wisconsin needed 38 attempts and three interceptions to get there. Marshall, Temple and Buffalo all finished under 110, while Northwestern threw just 14 passes because it was running for 413. None of those quarterbacks is in Maiava's class, but the numbers are real. A loud night crowd, a left tackle who might not play and a run-first plan could leave him in the low 200s. He has also thrown an interception in three of six games.

Want more upside on the same side? The 250+ rung at -130 has cashed in five of six, missing only that 245 against Washington.

PICK #2: Waymond Jordan 35+ Rushing Yards (-122)

This is the better way to bet Jordan. The 30+ line costs -170, and he has cleared both 30 and 35 in the same five of six games, so there's no reason to pay the extra juice. At -122 you're backing a 55.0% implied chance.

His log: 48 yards on 8 carries against San Jose State, 67 on 11 against Fresno State, 47 on 10 against Louisiana, 26 on 8 at Rutgers, 41 on 9 against Oregon and 36 on 11 against Washington. He also scored USC's first touchdown in that Washington game on an 8-yard run. He averages 44.2 yards.

Penn State has given up at least 113 rushing yards in each of its last four games, including 176 to Temple and the 413 at Northwestern.

The catch is volume. Jordan has had between 8 and 11 carries every week, so one stuffed run moves the needle, and his 36 against Washington cleared this number by a yard. If USC falls behind, he is the back most likely to lose touches.

PICK #3: King Miller 70+ Rushing Yards (-133)

Miller has led USC in carries in all six games and has gone over 70 in each of the last four: 128 on 18 carries against Louisiana, 102 on 16 at Rutgers, 74 on 13 against Oregon and 81 on 18 against Washington. That's 96.3 a game over that run, and he has averaged at least 4.5 yards a carry in every one of those games.

Both misses came in the first two weeks. He had 63 on 15 carries against San Jose State, then 45 on 15 against Fresno State in a 39-0 win where USC threw for 412 yards. Four of six overall, against the 57.1% chance that -133 implies.

Recent form plus this matchup is the case. Northwestern ran 55 times for 413 yards on Penn State last Friday, while the Nittany Lions ran for only 48 and had the ball for less than 24 minutes, which kept their defense on the field.

Now the problems. Jordan's 8 to 11 carries keep Miller's workload in the 13-to-18 range, and Treter's status at left tackle matters for the run game too. Penn State did hold Marshall to 44 rushing yards, so this defense has had good days. One more thing to know before pairing the two backs: Jordan and Miller have cleared these lines in the same game three times in six. A good rushing night for USC doesn't guarantee both cash.

All three picks need USC's offense to look like it has all season. If Penn State's defense plays the way it did against Marshall, they're all in trouble.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.