U.S. Open Picks and Golf Predictions
It has been a mixed bag of major results on the links so far in 2026. One of the biggest names in golf history triumphed at the Masters, with Rory McIlroy winning his second consecutive green jacket. It was a much different story at Aronimink Golf Club for the PGA Championship, as longshot Aaron Rai lifted the Wanamaker Trophy.
Now it’s time for the season’s third big one – the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island, New York. This week’s festivities promise to be wildly entertaining, as the best golfers in the world tackle – or try to – an extremely challenging course. The last time the U.S. Open was held at this venue in 2018, Brooks Koepka prevailed with a total score of +1. A whopping +7 card was good enough for a top-10 spot.
What can we expect to see eight years later at Shinnecock? Let’s break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make.
2026 U.S. Open odds
Given his performance at this same location eight years ago, Koepka is understandably among the favourites in his return trip. Newly back on the PGA Tour following his unceremonious stint with LIV Golf, Koepka’s season has been inconsistent. The 36-year-old American has missed three cuts and has not posted a top-10 finish since March 1. More concerning is that Koepka withdrew from his last start at the RBC Canadian Open because of a hand injury.
That obviously leaves the former Shinnecock champion well behind the top favourites this week. The list is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young.
Here are some of the odds to win the U.S. Open:
- Scottie Scheffler +455
- Rory McIlroy +940
- Jon Rahm +1025
- Xander Schauffele +1850
- Cameron Young +2000
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
- Tommy Fleetwood +2500
- Ludvig Aberg +2600
- Bryson DeChambeau +2700
- Brooks Koepka +2800
- Collin Morikawa +3300
- Russell Henley +3700
- Si Woo Kim +3800
- Sam Burns +3900
- Justin Rose +4100
Our Predictions:
- Pick #1 – Cameron Young to win the U.S. Open (+2000)
- Pick #2 - Justin Rose to win the U.S. Open (+4100)
- Pick #3 – Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top five (+430)
PICK #1: Cameron Young to win the U.S. Open (+2000)
Young has simply been on fire this season. The 29-year-old American has placed in the top 10 at six of his last nine tournaments, including victories at The Players Championship and a couple of months ago at the Cadillac Championship. This stretch includes a third-place showing at the Masters, his third top-10 result in Augusta and his seventh across the four majors combined. It feels like only a matter of time before Young wins his first big one – and that time could be now in his home state of New York.
PICK #2: Justin Rose to win the U.S. Open (+4100)
This may be a U.S. Open, but Shinnecock is a links-style golf course that you normally see across the pond. As such, don’t sleep on the European contingent – and certainly don’t sleep on Rose. A change to McLaren irons perhaps contributed to a minor slump following his latest near-miss at the Masters, but the 45-year-old Englishman is back in business with two top-12 showings in his past three starts. Rose placed in the top 10 at the 2018 Shinnecock U.S. Open, and he is former champion of this event (2013 at Merion Golf Club).
PICK #3: Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top five (+430)
Fleetwood is almost always good but rarely wins. The only PGA Tour victory of his career has come in a field of 30 participants (2025 Tour Championship). Fleetwood’s normal trend has continued in 2026, with seven top-10 performances but zero wins. The 35-year-old Englishman should be poised for more success at Shinnecock, where he placed second behind Koepka by just a single shot in 2018 following a Sunday 63. Fleetwood has three top-five finishes at the U.S. Open; there is no reason why he can’t pick up another one.
