US Open Men’s Singles Semifinal Picks
The U.S. Open men’s singles semifinal lineup could not have been predicted by anyone, but it’s a big one for the host nation. With American men seeking their first Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick won the U.S. Open 21 years ago, two – Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe – find themselves in the semis. One will be in the championship match, because Fritz and Tiafoe will go head-to-head on Friday in the first all-American men’s semifinal at this tournament since Andre Agassi defeated Robby Ginepri in 2005. This will be the first time an American man is in a major singles final since Roddick in 2009 (lost to Roger Federer at Wimbledon).
Only one of the top favorites is still alive. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is two wins away from his second slam title of the 2024 campaign and he will face Jack Draper.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the men’s semifinals.
Predictions
Pick #1: Jannik Sinner vs. Jack Draper Under 6.5 service breaks (+100)
Pick #2: Taylor Fritz vs. Frances Tiafoe Under 40.5 games (-110)
PICK #1: Sinner, Draper bring huge serves into semifinals
The shorter the match, the fewer opportunities there are for service breaks. And chances are good that Sinner vs. Draper will be a relatively short match. It is true that Draper has been dominant so far this fortnight, but he has played against only one opponent ranked better than 39th in the world and No. 10 Alex de Minaur was a shadow of his real self on Wednesday due to a hip issue. Now the 22-year-old Brit has to face Sinner, who is an incredible 53-5 this year and won the first hard-court Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open.
On the bright side for Draper, he wields an amazing serve that should help him avoid long rallies with Sinner. The world No. 25 has dropped serve only three times throughout the entire event and has saved 25 of 28 break points. Meanwhile, Sinner is getting broken just twice per match on average.
For all of those reasons, backing under 6.5 service breaks in the semifinal between Sinner and Draper looks like the play to make.
PICK #2: All-American matchup unlikely to be a marathon
If American tennis fans are hoping for an instant classic between Fritz and Tiafoe, they may be left wanting. There is a lot to like about Fritz’s chances on Friday. He is dominating the head-to-head series 6-1 and has won six in a row at his compatriot’s expense since losing their first-ever meeting eight years ago at the Indian Wells Masters. He has won six consecutive sets against Tiafoe dating back to the summer of 2022.
Moreover, Fritz has been awesome so far in New York. The world No. 12 has navigated a draw that has featured formidable opponents in Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. All three of those guys are Grand Slam finalists, which is what Fritz is hoping to become. Tiafoe has also played well, but he benefited from Novak Djokovic’s exit in the bottom quarter of the bracket (the world No. 20 defeated Alexei Popyrin one round after Popyrin took out Djokovic).
The bottom line is that Fritz is the better player and has enjoyed incredible success in this particular matchup. That being said, the under is a safer play than Fritz’s game spread since it gives you an outlet just in case the favorite gets tight while playing in his first major semi.
