UCLA vs. Oregon Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:45 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:56 AM ET

No. 13 Oregon (3-1) hosts No. 21 UCLA (4-0) without its starting quarterback. Dante Moore took a late hit in the second quarter of the 41-27 win at USC on Sept. 26, is still in the concussion protocol and is listed out on Friday's Big Ten availability report. Dylan Raiola, a two-year starter at Nebraska, gets his first Oregon start. He has been sharp in relief, 30 of 36 for 413 yards and five touchdowns, though those snaps came against USC and FCS Portland State.

UCLA arrives with the most efficient running game in the country. First-year coach Bob Chesney's Bruins lead the FBS at 6.95 yards per carry, average 281.5 rushing yards a game, have not been held under 214 this season and have won all four games by double digits. Oregon has been shakier than its ranking. The Ducks were favored by more than three touchdowns against Boise State and Oklahoma State, beat Boise by seven at home, then lost 39-31 in Stillwater while the Cowboys ran for 237 yards. History still belongs to Oregon: five straight wins in the series, and no UCLA win in Eugene since 2004.

Oregon opened as a 12.5-point favorite on Sept. 30 and is now -10.5 (-107), with UCLA +10.5 (-113). The moneyline is Oregon -420, UCLA +330, and the total, which opened around 60, is 58.5. Expect a mostly sunny afternoon in the mid-50s with light wind. Kickoff is 3:30 PM ET (12:30 PT) on CBS.

Here's how we see it. UCLA leans on the run, keeps the ball away from Oregon and is still within a score late in a backup quarterback's first start. The Ducks can win this game and still lose to the number. Both picks depend on the Bruins' ground game, so expect them to rise or fall together.

UCLA vs. Oregon Predictions

• Pick #1: UCLA +10.5 (-113)
• Pick #2: Wayne Knight 70+ Rushing Yards (-126)

PICK #1: UCLA +10.5 (-113)

UCLA plays keep-away. The Bruins have held the ball for more than 31 minutes in three of their four games (more than 36 against Purdue), and the defense has forced 12 turnovers, eight of them interceptions. Oregon hasn't thrown an interception all year, so that's the matchup to watch.

Getting the half point past 10 is worth something, too: an Oregon win by a touchdown and a field goal still cashes. The number has already dropped two points since the opener. At -113 you're paying for a 53.1% chance.

What beats this bet is the Oregon passing game. The Ducks throw for 346.5 yards a game, Raiola went 19 of 25 for 289 yards and two scores at USC, and UCLA gave up 425 passing yards to Purdue. Oregon also leads the FBS in third-down defense at 21.2%, while UCLA ranks 96th nationally in passing offense. If the Bruins fall behind and have to throw, they're in trouble. And for all the gaudy rushing numbers, UCLA's four wins came against California, San Diego State, Purdue and Maryland, none of them ranked.

PICK #2: Wayne Knight 70+ Rushing Yards (-126)

Oregon knows who it has to stop. Defensive tackle A'Mauri Washington called him "an NFL running back," and the numbers back him up: 445 yards, nine touchdowns and at least 70 yards in every game. Most recent first:

At Maryland: 10 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD

Vs. Purdue: 18 carries, 177 yards, 2 TDs

Vs. San Diego State: 13 carries, 97 yards, 3 TDs

At California: 8 carries, 71 yards, 3 TDs

Lead backs have found room against the Ducks, who allow 113 rushing yards a game. Oklahoma State's Caleb Hawkins went for 110 and USC's King Miller for 74. At -126, the line implies 55.8%.

Knight's workload is the worry. UCLA rotates Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas behind him, so he averages about 12 carries, and his best days lean on runs of 31 to 47 yards. He cleared 70 at California by a single yard on eight carries. Oregon has allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season, and Boise State's leading rusher was held to 50 yards in Eugene. If UCLA falls behind early, Knight's carries dry up, and that's the same script that loses Pick #1.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.