Troy vs. James Madison Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/29)

Fact checked at 7:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

Odds as of 6:47 AM ET, Oct 29, 2026

James Madison (7-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) hosts Troy (3-4, 1-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Bridgeforth Stadium on ESPN2. The Dukes are coming off a 34-31 overtime loss at App State. Troy has lost three of its last four and scored 6 points at Louisiana and 14 at home against ULM in its last two games. Goose Crowder left both of those games with an upper-body injury, and Tucker Kilcrease threw passes in each. The Sun Belt's initial availability report lists Crowder as probable, but Troy's starter isn't settled.

We think James Madison wins this one through the air. Camden Coleman has led the Dukes in passing in each of their last five games and is expected to start. Tanner Vibabul, listed as doubtful, hasn't been the passer in any of them. The same report rules out George Pettaway, the Sun Belt's leading rusher, which pushes more of the offense toward Coleman's top targets. Both picks ride on that.

The line has moved toward the Dukes, from -17.5 when it opened to -19.5 (-110). The total opened at 52 and is down to 49.5, with the Under at -109. James Madison averages 41.4 points a game and is 4-0 at home. Troy has lost all three of its road games and averaged 11 points in them. The Harrisonburg forecast is clear and calm for kickoff.

Troy vs. James Madison Predictions

• Pick #1: Cole Keller 25+ Receiving Yards (-153)
• Pick #2: Michael Scott 40+ Receiving Yards (-138)

PICK #1: Cole Keller 25+ Receiving Yards (-153)

Keller has reached 25 receiving yards in seven of his eight games this season. The one miss was 21 yards on three catches at Old Dominion. Over the last five, all with Coleman at quarterback, he has 25, 54, 108, 35 and 21, newest first, and his touchdown at App State was his fifth, most on the team.

He has gotten there in different kinds of games. He caught four passes for 108 yards in the 27-24 win at Georgia Southern, two for 54 in the 49-22 rout of Georgia State and three for 35 against Marshall. At his previous school last season he reached 25 in only four of eight games, but his role at James Madison is bigger, and this season's numbers are the ones that fit tonight.

The -153 price implies 60.5%. James Madison has scored 50.3 points a game at home, and with Pettaway out, the tight end is a natural place for short and middle throws to go.

Volume is the risk. Keller landed exactly on 25 at App State on two catches, so there isn't much cushion. Troy has held four opponents under 150 passing yards this season, and if the Dukes run away with it early, the second half could become a running clock.

PICK #2: Michael Scott 40+ Receiving Yards (-138)

Scott has cleared 40 receiving yards in each of the last four games, all with Coleman throwing: three catches for 47 at App State, four for 44 against Georgia State, four for 68 at Georgia Southern and four for 43 against Marshall. He has 40 or more in five of his seven games with a catch this season.

He also leads the nation in combined return yardage, ranks 17th in all-purpose yards and has two punt-return touchdowns, so the Dukes keep finding ways to get him the ball. Losing Pettaway takes more than 100 rushing yards a game out of the offense, and Scott is one of the players they can move around to make up for it.

At -138, the implied probability is 58.0%. He needs three or four catches, which has been his normal workload.

The margin is thin. Three of those four clears came at 43, 44 and 47, just past the number. His one miss in the last five games, 19 yards at Old Dominion, came in a 46-20 win, the kind of lopsided game this spread points toward, and a big lead could mean fewer throws late.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.