Toledo vs. Sacramento State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:29 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Toledo visits Sacramento State at 7:00 PM ET at Hornet Stadium on CBS Sports Network, the first meeting between the schools. The Rockets are 6-2 and 3-1 in the MAC, tied for second, and lay 25.5 points. Sacramento State is 2-7 and 1-5 in its first MAC season and just beat Kent State 31-10 for the first conference win in program history. We expect Toledo to move the ball through the air the way it has all season, and the Hornets to keep handing it to freshman Isaiah Ene, because the run is the one part of their offense that works. Both picks come from that game.

John Alan Richter, Toledo's projected starter, has thrown for 2,244 yards, 17 touchdowns and two interceptions for the MAC's top passing offense (288.1 yards a game). Jackson Sharman is the projected starter for Sacramento State.

Toledo vs. Sacramento State Predictions

• Pick #1: Adjatay Dabbs 60+ Receiving Yards (-160)
• Pick #2: Isaiah Ene 40+ Rushing Yards (-119)

PICK #1: Adjatay Dabbs 60+ Receiving Yards (-160)

Against FBS defenses, Dabbs has cleared 60 yards in six of seven games: 101 at Michigan State, 88 against Temple, 62 against San Diego State, 82 at Ball State, 66 at Eastern Michigan and 124 against Western Michigan. He leads Toledo with 40 catches for 592 yards and seven touchdowns. His one miss, 35 yards, came in the 23-8 loss to Buffalo, the only FBS game in which Toledo failed to score at least 20.

With a 25.5-point favorite, the obvious fear is a big lead and a second half of CJ Miller runs. Toledo's three double-digit wins over FBS teams mostly put that to rest. Dabbs had 62 against San Diego State (41-16), 82 at Ball State (39-24) and 66 at Eastern Michigan (34-14). Richter has thrown for at least 196 yards in all seven FBS games.

The -160 price implies 61.5%, and six of seven against FBS defenses clears that comfortably. This isn't a free 60 yards, though. Sacramento State is soft against the run (265 rushing yards allowed to Ohio, 232 to UMass, 218 to Bowling Green), so Toledo may run more than usual, and the San Diego State game shows how thin the margin can be: three catches, 62 yards.

PICK #2: Isaiah Ene 40+ Rushing Yards (-119)

Ene's job changed midseason. In Sacramento State's first four FBS games he shared the backfield and got 3, 3, 9 and 5 carries. Starting with Bowling Green, he has led the team in carries every week: 12 for 46 at Bowling Green, 7 for 59 against Ohio, 10 for 57 at Ball State, then a career-high 19 for 107 and two touchdowns against Kent State, good for MAC Offensive Player of the Week.

That's four straight games over 40 as the lead back. Four games isn't much of a sample, but three of them were losses by 17 or more (38-10, 48-7, 34-17), and falling behind never took the ball away from him. The Hornets don't have a passing game to chase with anyway. Sharman threw for 117 yards in the Kent State win. Toledo's run defense, meanwhile, has allowed at least 130 rushing yards to five of its seven FBS opponents, including 261 to Temple and 180 to Buffalo.

At -119 the break-even is 54.3%. Over the full FBS season, committee games included, he's 5 of 8 at 40 or more. The danger is touches. He had only seven carries against Ohio and got to 59 on the back of a 33-yard run, so a night with eight or nine carries and no long one leaves him short.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.