Fact checked at 8:02 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026
Oklahoma City (8-2) brings a four-game winning streak to the Moda Center for an 11:00 PM ET tip against Portland (6-3), the first of two straight meetings between these teams in Portland. The Thunder are 2.5-point favorites with a short roster. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams and Thomas Sorber are all out on the latest injury report, while Portland is without Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe and Vit Krejci. We're backing one game here. The Thunder have leaked more points since Holmgren went down, Portland's offense (third in the league at 119.3 a game) keeps this within a possession, and a close game played at that level gets past the total.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Predictions
Pick #1Trail Blazers +2.5−110
Oklahoma City allowed 96.3 points a game in the three games Holmgren played. In the seven since he went out with a knee injury expected to cost him 8 to 10 weeks, it's 107.6, a stretch that includes a 120-96 loss at Dallas and a 119-98 loss at Houston. The current win streak came against Cleveland twice (by 5 and 8 points), Memphis and Washington.
Portland, meanwhile, has kept scoring without Morant. Deni Avdija leads the team at 22.3 points a game, and the Blazers won 118-110 at Denver and 132-119 at Phoenix in their last five. Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Avdija and Donovan Clingan are the projected starters, with Jrue Holiday off the bench. Portland would have covered 2.5 in six of its nine games. At -110 the price implies a 52.4% chance.
Home court hasn't helped Portland, though. The Blazers are 1-2 at the Moda Center and scored 103 in two of those games, including a 125-103 loss to San Antonio in their last game. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 26 or more in each of his last five, including 43 and 42 against Cleveland. In a game this tight, one late run from him can decide it.
Pick #2Over 226.5−108
Seven of Portland's nine games have gone over 226.5. The Blazers score 119.3 a game and give up 113.8, 16th in the league, and their last five finished with combined scores of 228, 242, 251, 228 and 202. Oklahoma City has held up on offense without Holmgren, averaging 114.6 over those seven games, and its two meetings with Cleveland totaled 229 and 240.
It's the same game we're backing on the spread: Portland near its scoring average and Oklahoma City answering. At -108 the break-even is 51.9%.
The Thunder's full season points the other way. Only three of their 10 games went over this number, and they allow 104.2 a game, tied with New York for the fewest in the league. Their last game was a 114-75 win over Washington. If Portland's offense stalls the way it did against San Antonio, the Over goes down with it.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
