Celtics vs. 76ers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/10)

Simons comes off the bench for Philadelphia, and his minutes have dropped since the full rotation got back together. In the last four games, with Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Embiid all playing, he logged 24, 10, 19 and 16 minutes and scored 6, 0, 6 and 3 points on 4-of-20 shooting. He took one shot in the 10-minute game at Detroit.

His big nights came when there was more room. He scored 21 in 31 minutes on a night Brown sat with a knee issue, and 19 at Charlotte when James and Embiid both sat. None of those players is on tonight's injury report. If one of them gets ruled out, Simons plays more and this pick loses its reason to exist.

He can still shoot his way past 6.5. He is making 38.7% of his threes on 5.6 attempts a game, two threes and a free throw get there, and he scored 20 in 27 minutes at Indiana with everyone available. At -107 (51.7% implied), we are betting the recent workload, about 17 minutes a night, holds against the defense that gives up the third-fewest points in the league.

Boston has been the better team so far, at both ends. Jayson Tatum is averaging 27.1 points and 7.8 assists, Paul George is at 20.4 points, and the Celtics have won three straight, beating Milwaukee 117-97 last time out and Charlotte 119-80 before that. Philadelphia's wins have been closer. On the road trip it won 112-106 at Detroit and 127-121 at Chicago, and it lost 119-95 at Cleveland.

The 76ers are short up front, too. Bona, Barlow and Hukporti are all out, so there is less size behind Embiid, and the team has been managing his minutes.

At -115, Boston needs to win 53.5% of the time. A 7.6-point gap in scoring margin says Boston is better than a coin flip here. On the spread, 60% of the money is on Boston from 50% of the tickets, while 69% of moneyline tickets are on Philadelphia.

The schedule is what could go wrong. Boston is on the first night of a back-to-back, and Philadelphia is rested and at home. Boston has listed nobody for rest tonight, and its starters are expected to play.

Start with his foot. Embiid is managing plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He played on a 25-minute restriction against Chicago, and he has sat the second night of both of Philadelphia's back-to-backs. His last four games went 15, 26, 6 and 18 points in 25, 33, 25 and 29 minutes, and he shot a combined 7-of-28 in the last two, including 0-for-9 at Cleveland.

The season numbers back it up. He is averaging 17.9 points on 38.0% shooting, under tonight's line, and he has stayed under 19.5 in five of his nine games. At -106, the break-even is 51.5%.

Boston has the size to make his nights hard. Neemias Queta has started each of the Celtics' last five games at center, Mitchell Robinson is also on the roster, and Philadelphia's offense runs through Maxey and Brown first.

A full night is how this loses. Embiid is rested, off the injury report and has no announced limit, and his 26-point game came in his longest outing of the stretch, 33 minutes at Detroit. If he doesn't play, the prop is void.