Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:36 AM ET

No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) and Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1) meet at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, both coming off a bye. Texas is allowing 13.3 points a game, and its two closest wins were defensive ones: 24-23 over Ohio State and 20-17 at Tennessee. Oklahoma lost 41-13 at Georgia and 17-10 at Michigan, and it has scored 10, 14 and 13 points in its last three games (Michigan, New Mexico, Georgia).

The Sooners can't run the ball. They managed 65 yards on 35 carries at Georgia and 61 on 32 against New Mexico, and the line is shorthanded again. Friday's availability report lists left tackle Michael Fasusi out (he has missed the last three games), starting left guard Eddy Pierre-Louis doubtful and lineman Fred Hinton out. Receiver Trell Harris is listed out as well. The secondary is thin too: cornerback Jacobe Johnson is out, and starting cornerback Eli Bowen was added as questionable Friday night after getting hurt in practice Thursday. On the Texas side, defensive lineman Zion Williams is out, Justus Terry is questionable, and running back Hollywood Smothers, who missed the Tennessee game, is off the report.

Texas is a 7.5-point favorite (-105), with the moneyline at -310 and Oklahoma at +250. The total opened at 48.5 in late September and has fallen to 39.5 (Over -105, Under -115). Expect sun, about 90 degrees and light wind. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on ABC.

Here's how we see it. Texas controls a low-scoring game, and Oklahoma's offense turns into John Mateer throwing from behind. That's how last year's meeting went: Texas won 23-6, and Mateer still threw 38 passes for 202 yards, 17 days after surgery on his throwing hand. All three picks are on Oklahoma's passing game, so they need volume rather than points. They also live or die together. If Mateer gets knocked out of the game or Oklahoma stops throwing, all three lose.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Predictions

• Pick #1: John Mateer 170+ Passing Yards (-164)
• Pick #2: Isaiah Sategna 50+ Receiving Yards (-143)
• Pick #3: Rocky Beers 38+ Receiving Yards (-115)

PICK #1: John Mateer 170+ Passing Yards (-164)

Mateer's low this season is 189 yards, and he threw for 202 against Texas last October. Most recent first:

231 at Georgia (25 of 34)

238 against New Mexico (19 of 25)

189 at Michigan (17 of 33)

225 against UTEP (11 of 17)

Watch what happened in the two road losses. Oklahoma fell behind, couldn't run, and Mateer threw 34 times at Georgia and 33 at Michigan. Against Texas last year he threw 38. Fasusi is out and Pierre-Louis is doubtful, so there's no reason to expect the running game to fix itself now, and as a 7.5-point underdog Oklahoma is likely to spend the second half chasing.

Our worry is the Texas defense, which held Tennessee to 151 passing yards and UTSA to 70. Texas has 15 sacks in four games, 10 of them at Tennessee (5.5 by Colin Simmons), and Oklahoma has already allowed nine. A patched line could mean sacks and short drives, and this offense gives the ball away: four turnovers at Georgia, three against New Mexico, and three Mateer interceptions against Texas last year. Then again, Ohio State threw for 278 on the Longhorns and Texas State for 188.

The price works out to a 62.1% implied chance. For a bigger payout on the same side, 186+ is -116. He has cleared that in every game too, but only by three yards at Michigan.

PICK #2: Isaiah Sategna 50+ Receiving Yards (-143)

Harris hasn't shown up in a box score since the Michigan game, and in the two games since, Sategna has 14 catches for 182 yards. He's Oklahoma's leading receiver. Most recent first:

8 catches for 81 yards at Georgia

6 for 101 against New Mexico, including a 53-yard touchdown

2 for 9 at Michigan

4 for 76 and a touchdown against UTEP

He caught 4 passes for 61 yards against Texas last year. And at Georgia, the game that looks most like this one, eight of Mateer's 25 completions went to him.

You have to account for Michigan, though: two catches for nine yards in a 17-10 game where Mateer went 17 of 33. A slow game can leave one receiver with almost nothing. At -143 you're paying for a 58.8% chance, which is fair for a receiver who has gone over 80 yards in both games without Harris.

PICK #3: Rocky Beers 38+ Receiving Yards (-115)

Beers does his best work when Oklahoma is behind. His two biggest games came in the two losses, when Mateer threw 33 and 34 times. Most recent first:

8 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown at Georgia

2 for 34 against New Mexico

6 for 94 at Michigan

2 for 43 against UTEP, on a 40-yard touchdown

He averages 63.8 receiving yards a game, and a quarterback behind a short-handed line looks for the tight end on quick throws. At Georgia, Beers and Sategna combined for 16 of Mateer's 25 completions and 165 yards.

He did catch only two passes in each of the two home games, and his 34 yards against New Mexico would lose this bet. If Oklahoma keeps it close and never has to throw 30 times, the volume isn't there. Still, -115 implies just 53.5%, the cheapest price of the three.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.