Texas vs Ohio State Picks - August 30

The No. 1 Texas Longhorns meet the No. 3 defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes in a blockbuster Week 1 matchup on Saturday, August 30, 2025. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, with the game airing live on FOX.

It’s a rematch of January’s College Football Playoff semifinal, when Ohio State punched its ticket to the national title, in part thanks to a wild 83-yard fumble return touchdown by defensive end Jack Sawyer in the final minutes. 

Each team looks a little different now as Texas rides the hype of Arch Manning, the Heisman favorite, while Ohio State transitions to a new quarterback and breaks in new coordinators with the best overall player in the sport in receiver Jeremiah Smith. Let’s dive into our best bets for this heavyweight showdown.

Texas vs Ohio State Predictions

Pick #1: Texas Longhorns +2.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 47.5 total points (-109) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Arch Manning over 25.5 rushing yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Texas +2.5 over Ohio State (-110)

Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns have the edge in continuity, coaching stability and quarterback play heading into Columbus.

Arch Manning has already flashed his athleticism and poise, totaling 939 passing yards, nine touchdowns and four rushing scores in limited action last season. He’s more dynamic than his predecessor, Quinn Ewers, giving Sark the flexibility to open up the playbook. Ohio State, on the other hand, turns to Julian Sayin, a five-star recruit but still unproven with just 12 career pass attempts. Throwing him into the fire against a top-ranked Texas defense led by edge rusher Colin Simmons and linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. is a tall order.

Texas also returns more in the backfield. Quintrevion Wisner is a versatile weapon with over 1,300 total yards last year, and sophomore CJ Baxter, who missed all of last season but rushed for 659 yards and five scores as a freshman in 2023, gives Sark an exciting backfield tandem to play with. By contrast, Ohio State hands the reins to sophomore James Peoples, who logged just 197 rushing yards in 2024.

The Buckeyes do have an undeniable advantage at wide receiver with Jeremiah Smith alongside Carnell Tate and Brandon Innis. But let’s not forget: Texas somehow held Smith to one catch for three yards in the playoff semifinal. While Tate made plays that day, Ohio State’s offense is far less seasoned now, especially without lethal RB duo TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, veteran QB Will Howard and receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Texas’ front seven can disrupt Sayin early, and Sarkisian has a proven track record of winning these high-profile non-conference road games – just ask Alabama and Michigan. The Longhorns will have a chip on their shoulder after January’s loss, and catching Ohio State in Week 1 is likely the best time to catch them all season.

PICK #2: Over 47.5 Total Points (-109)

Yes, both defenses boast elite playmakers. Ohio State free safety Caleb Downs may be the single best defensive player, while Texas’ pass rush is one of the best in the country, but the offensive potential with Sarkisian and Day, two of the sharpest minds in the sport, is too strong to ignore. We just don’t think these two coaches can breed two lower-scoring games in consecutive meetings. 

Each team is loaded with explosive receivers, from Smith and Tate for the Buckeyes to Texas’ DeAndre Moore and LSU transfer Ryan Wingo. And while the running games are less exciting, that may only push both staffs toward leaning on their talented quarterbacks and wideouts, leading to more aggressive play-calling and clock stoppages.

Expect some growing pains from both QBs, but explosive scoring plays should balance out the inevitable mistakes. This feels like a game where both teams eventually push into the mid-20s. A 28-24 type of score is very much in play.

PICK #3: Arch Manning Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

One of the overlooked elements of Arch Manning’s game is his mobility. Last season, in limited reps, he ran for 108 yards and four touchdowns on just 25 carries, showcasing his ability and willingness to extend plays and pick up yards with his legs.

Expect Sarkisian to scheme designed runs and rollouts to help Manning exploit new personnel in the Buckeyes’ pass rush. With the offensive line dealing with injuries (notably RT Andre Cojoe out for the year and LT Trevor Goosby banged up but still may play), Manning will likely need to improvise and move the pocket. 

Yes, college sacks count against QB rushing yards, but Manning’s athleticism should allow him to escape pressure enough to clear this modest number. Even a handful of designed draws or scrambles could get him over the line.