Texas A&M vs. Missouri Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:40 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:36 AM ET

Missouri (4-1, 1-1 SEC) took Florida apart 45-17 last Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog and jumped 11 spots to No. 14 in the AP poll. Texas A&M (3-2, 1-2) comes to Columbia after a home loss to Kentucky, a 35-6 beating at LSU and a 34-7 win over Arkansas last week. Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite (-107), -175 on the moneyline with Texas A&M at +140, and the total sits at 49.5.

This game turns on Austin Simmons and the Texas A&M secondary. The transfer quarterback has 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and three of Texas A&M's last four opponents passed for more than 250 yards against it, Kentucky on just 18 attempts and LSU's starter on 23. Texas A&M has five sacks in five games, tied for 123rd in FBS on NCAA.com. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said this week that if Simmons "doesn't get out of rhythm, we're going to really struggle to control him."

The other side of the ball leans Missouri's way, too. Elko himself called the Tigers' run defense 12th in the country at 2.6 yards a carry, and Marcel Reed has thrown for between 106 and 236 yards in every game this season. Our read is a Missouri win built through the air, and all three picks are Missouri passing-game bets that cash together in that game.

Friday's availability report lists Missouri right tackle Josh Atkins and running back Ahmad Hardy as out. Left tackle Cayden Green is questionable, as are four defensive starters: ends Langden Kitchen and Darris Smith, linebacker Robert Woodyard Jr. and safeties Santana Banner and Kensley Louidor-Faustin. For Texas A&M, receiver Mario Craver is questionable and receiver Terry Bussey is out. Simmons, Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode aren't on it. Expect dry, warm weather with light wind, upper 70s at kickoff and mid 80s by the fourth quarter. Kickoff is 12:00 PM ET at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, on ABC.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri Predictions

• Pick #1: Austin Simmons 230+ Passing Yards (-167)
• Pick #2: Donovan Olugbode Anytime Touchdown (+120)
• Pick #3: Cayden Lee 80+ Receiving Yards (-160)

PICK #1: Austin Simmons 230+ Passing Yards (-167)

Simmons has cleared this number in three of four games against FBS defenses, and all three hits went past 290: 292 at Kansas, 295 at Mississippi State, 340 against Florida. He doesn't need volume to get there. He threw 29 passes at Kansas and 30 against Florida, at 10.1 and 11.3 yards an attempt, and that's the kind of efficiency Kentucky and LSU found against Texas A&M.

The full log, most recent first:

340 against Florida (23 of 30)

295 at Mississippi State (23 of 39)

108 against Troy (11 of 20)

292 at Kansas (19 of 29)

252 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an FCS team (17 of 19)

That 108 is the risk at -167, a 62.5% implied chance. Missouri handed it to Jamal Roberts 22 times against Troy, Simmons threw only 20 passes, and if the Tigers build a lead and sit on it here, the same thing can happen. Texas A&M also held Arkansas to 111 passing yards last week. Protection is the other worry with Atkins out and Green questionable, although Missouri has allowed only six sacks all season.

The 250+ rung is available at -109 with the same four-of-five record, but the season opener cleared it by just two yards. We'll take the extra 20 yards of cushion.

PICK #2: Donovan Olugbode Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Olugbode has caught a touchdown pass in every game Missouri has played. Six in all: two against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then one each at Kansas, against Troy, at Mississippi State and against Florida. That's almost half of Simmons' 13 touchdown passes, and he found the end zone even in the Troy game, when Missouri barely threw.

At +120 the book is giving him a 45.5% chance to do it again. For a receiver with a five-game streak, in an offense that has scored at least 24 points every week and a quarterback with a touchdown pass in every game, we like that price more than either yardage line.

He does have competition near the goal line. Roberts scored three times on the ground against Florida, and Lee has four touchdown catches. A slow game with few Missouri possessions shrinks everybody's chances.

PICK #3: Cayden Lee 80+ Receiving Yards (-160)

Lee followed Simmons over from Ole Miss, and Elko brought up their connection this week. He leads Missouri with 522 receiving yards, and against the three major-conference teams on the schedule (Kansas, Mississippi State, Florida) he went for 120, 156 and 110.

His game-by-game, most recent first: 8 catches for 110 against Florida, 11 for 156 at Mississippi State, 5 for 47 against Troy, 6 for 120 at Kansas and 5 for 89 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

This is effectively a second bet on Pick #1. Lee has reached 80 in every game where Simmons reached 230 and fell short in the one game Simmons didn't. The price, -160, works out to 61.5%. The 87+ rung at -114 has the same record, but his 89 in the season opener would have cleared it by two yards, so we're staying at 80.

The risk is the same Troy-style game, or Texas A&M rolling coverage toward him and making someone else beat them. If Simmons has a dud, this goes down with Pick #1.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.