TCU vs North Carolina Picks - September 1
The final game of college football Week 1 closes out the holiday weekend in style as TCU travels to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina at Kenan Stadium (Monday, Sept. 1, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN). It should be a beautiful Southern night under the lights, and all eyes will be on the Tar Heels as the Bill Belichick era begins. The legendary NFL coach has brought a wave of intrigue, speculation and media attention to a program that underwent one of the biggest roster overhauls in the nation.
But while North Carolina is getting the headlines, TCU enters as the favorite. Three seasons removed from a national title appearance in Sonny Dykes’ first season, the Horned Frogs look to climb back into Big 12 contention. Here are my best bets and NCAAF predictions for this Big 12-ACC showdown.
TCU vs North Carolina Predictions
Pick #1: TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-110) Click Here to Bet
Pick #2: Under 56.5 total points (-110) Click Here to Bet
Pick #3: Josh Hoover (TCU) over 294.5 passing yards (-114) Click Here to Bet
PICK #1: TCU -3.5 over North Carolina (-110)
The football buzz out of Chapel Hill is exciting, but North Carolina is essentially starting from scratch. The Tar Heels have 60 new faces on the roster, 13 new projected starters from the portal and a first-time college head coach in Belichick.
Their dual-threat quarterback, South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez, showed flashes last season with over 3,000 total yards and 25 touchdowns, but stepping up from the Sun Belt to face a Power Four defense in Week 1 is a massive leap. UNC also lost its top rusher, Omarion Hampton, and its two leading receivers from last season.
Contrast that with TCU, which brings back continuity in its passing game. Quarterback Josh Hoover emerged last season, throwing for a school-record 3,949 yards and 27 touchdowns while completing 66.5% of his passes. He now has more than a year and a half of starting experience, and Dykes has retooled the receiver room. Eric McAlister returns after posting 762 yards and 5 TDs on 39 catches with Hoover last year, while Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards, 12 TDs at Idaho) and Joseph Manjack IV (Houston) should help form a formidable corps.
TCU also returns eight starters on defense, including a secondary that should be able to limit a Tar Heels offense still searching for playmakers. With far more continuity, experience and explosiveness, the Horned Frogs are the play at -3.5.
PICK #2: Under 56.5 Total Points (-110)
North Carolina’s defense should be ahead of its offense, particularly in the secondary. Cornerback Thaddeus Dixon, who followed DC Steve Belichick from Washington, was one of the Big Ten’s top cover men last year.
On the other side, it’s hard to see UNC generating consistent scoring drives. Lopez has ability as a dual-threat, but against a defense that returns most of its starters, he’ll be asked to do too much in his first start at this level. Without Hampton and his security blankets at receiver, the Heels may rely heavily on methodical, conservative drives, which is very much in line with Belichick’s NFL tendencies.
TCU’s run game, meanwhile, doesn’t project as a major weapon. Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne combined for 435 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. That means Hoover will throw often, but one-dimensional road teams in Week 1 usually don’t pile up points.
PICK #3: Josh Hoover (TCU) Over 294.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Even though I like the Under, Hoover’s passing yardage prop is still attractive. TCU lost its top rusher and doesn’t have a proven ground game. That means Hoover will be tasked with carrying the offense through the air, regardless of efficiency.
Hoover threw for 333+ yards six times last season, so he has the ability to blast past this number. With McAlister back and two impact transfers stepping in, he has plenty of weapons to work with, and should easily clear the volume needed to hit 295 yards.
It’s a case where TCU may not score on every drive, but their offense will still flow almost exclusively through Hoover’s arm.
