TCU vs. Baylor Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:50 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:43 AM ET

Baylor has won four straight, including a 55-19 rout at Arizona State on Oct 3, and comes into the rivalry 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big 12. TCU is 2-3 and 0-2, and the reason isn't hard to find. The Horned Frogs scored 10 against North Carolina, 13 at UCF and 10 against BYU. Their big days came against Arkansas State (31-7) and Grambling (63-7).

That offense now meets a Baylor defense that has allowed 17, 3, 19, 13 and 19 points. It gives up 97.4 rushing yards a game. Teams can throw on the Bears, and every FBS opponent finished with 223 to 310 passing yards, but in two league games opponents converted just 7 of 30 third downs.

Baylor is a 5.5-point favorite and the total sits at 48.5, down from 52.5 when it opened on Oct 11. Both teams were off on Oct 10. DJ Lagway is back under center for Baylor after an ankle injury cost him the Sep 13 and Sep 19 games, and Jaden Craig has taken every meaningful snap for TCU. Friday's Big 12 availability report lists TCU kicker Kyle Lemmermann as out, with Nate McCashland handling the job.

TCU won't be able to run on Baylor, so Craig will throw, move it between the 20s and bog down, and the game stays low-scoring. The Under and Small's receiving yards both come from that kind of night. The Bears and Horned Frogs kick off at 7:00 PM ET at McLane Stadium in Waco, on FS1.

TCU vs. Baylor Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 48.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Ed Small 37+ Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Under 48.5 (-105)

TCU hasn't played a high-scoring game against an FBS opponent all year. The combined scores of those four games were 25, 38, 34 and 27, and none came within 10 points of 48.5. The Frogs' defense deserves part of the credit: no FBS team has scored more than 21 on it or thrown for more than 232 yards.

Add Baylor's four FBS games and six of the eight stayed under this number. The market has moved the same direction, four points off the opener. At -105, the price implies a 51.2% chance, and we think the Under clears that.

The danger is Baylor's offense. The Bears put up 55 at Arizona State with Lagway and 36 against Louisiana Tech with backup Nate Bennett, and both games went over (74 and 55 combined). Caden Knighten ripped off a 75-yard run in Tempe, and one play like that changes the math. The forecast is dry with light wind.

PICK #2: Ed Small 37+ Receiving Yards (-114)

If TCU is going to move the ball at all, it'll be through the air. Baylor allows 229.2 passing yards per game against 97.4 on the ground, and Craig has already thrown 40 passes at UCF and 32 against North Carolina.

Small has been the steady piece of that passing game. Against FBS defenses he has 65 yards on 9 catches against North Carolina, 164 against Arkansas State, 41 at UCF and 32 against BYU. That's three of four at 37 or better, and the -114 price implies 53.3%.

He isn't the only option. Tight end Kari Ashley, listed as probable, had 108 yards against BYU, and Jordan Dwyer had 100 at UCF. Small's last two games were also his quietest. But 37 yards doesn't ask much of a receiver who should see plenty of volume on a night TCU spends playing from behind.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.