TCU vs. Arizona Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 8:02 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:30 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

TCU (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) visits No. 24 Arizona (6-2, 3-2) at 10:15 PM ET at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Arizona is a 7.5-point favorite and the total is 46.5. The Wildcats are coming off a 34-26 loss at Texas Tech. TCU beat Kansas 22-16 and is on a short week, and coach Sonny Dykes said a virus has gone through 25 to 30 of his players.

Arizona should win a grind. TCU allows 14.1 points a game, eighth in FBS, and its offense has scored more than 22 points only against Grambling State and Arkansas State. Arizona's touchdowns should come on short runs, while TCU moves the ball through the air and stalls before the end zone. Kedrick Reescano scoring, the Under and Ed Small's yards all come out of that game. Noah Fifita and Jaden Craig are both expected to start at quarterback, and the forecast is clear and around 60 degrees with a light wind.

TCU vs. Arizona Predictions

• Pick #1: Kedrick Reescano Anytime Touchdown (+100)
• Pick #2: Under 46.5 (-114)
• Pick #3: Ed Small 25+ Receiving Yards (-173)

PICK #1: Kedrick Reescano Anytime Touchdown (+100)

When Arizona gets close, Reescano gets the ball. He has seven rushing touchdowns and has scored in four straight games: twice at Texas Tech and once each against Iowa State, West Virginia and Cincinnati. Overall he's scored in five of eight. It isn't about volume. He averages 3.6 yards a carry, and he ran nine times for 18 yards in Lubbock while still scoring twice.

Against TCU, that's the kind of back you want. The Horned Frogs allow about 3.2 yards a carry, so Arizona won't break many long runs, and whatever rushing touchdowns it gets will likely come from a yard or two out. TCU has also allowed only three passing touchdowns in its last five games, which makes a short run a likelier finish than a throw to Isaiah Mizell. Even money implies 50%.

Arizona does spread the rushing touchdowns around. Quincy Craig and Antwan Roberts Jr. have both run for touchdowns in the last four games, and Fifita has three rushing scores. Ismail Mahdi, who hasn't carried the ball since the win at Washington State, is questionable on the Big 12's latest report. And if Arizona's drives end in field goals, this loses.

PICK #2: Under 46.5 (-114)

Previews earlier in the week had this total at 42.5 to 43.5, and it's up to 46.5. That's too high for a TCU game. All seven of TCU's games against FBS teams finished under 46.5. The highest was 44, in the 24-20 loss to West Virginia. TCU has yet to score three touchdowns against a Power Four opponent, and it hasn't allowed more than 24 points to anyone.

Arizona's passing offense ranks sixth in the country at 324.1 yards a game, but TCU allows 174.6 through the air, and the Wildcats' run game has been inefficient. BYU, the one defense that slowed Fifita, held him to 230 yards, his lowest total of the season. A 24-17 or 27-13 final wins this.

The Over has 76% of the bets and 72% of the money, and -114 implies a 53.3% chance. Arizona's recent games are the problem: three of its last five went over 46.5, including 52-31 at West Virginia. Turnovers could also hand either offense a short field and push a slow game to 30-20.

PICK #3: Ed Small 25+ Receiving Yards (-173)

TCU can move the ball. Scoring is the hard part. Craig has 2,207 passing yards, and Small has been one of his most dependable receivers. He's reached 25 yards in seven of eight games: 65 against North Carolina, 101 against FCS Grambling State, 164 against Arkansas State, 41 at UCF, 32 against BYU, 91 at Baylor and 34 against Kansas. The only miss was 20 against West Virginia. His 548 receiving yards are second on the team behind tight end Kari Ashley.

Arizona will be without two starters in the secondary, cornerback Jay'Vion Cole and safety Cam Chapa. TCU's receiver room is thin too, with Terry Shelton, Keagan Cunningham and Cooper Reid all out, so the targets keep going to Small, Jordan Dwyer and Ashley. If TCU trails by a touchdown, it has to throw.

At -173 you need this to hit 63.4% of the time, so it isn't cheap. Small caught only two passes against Kansas and three against West Virginia, which means one long gain carries a lot of the weight. Craig will run when he sees space, and nobody knows how the virus will hit TCU's roster. If Craig doesn't play, this pick loses its case.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.