Stanford vs. Notre Dame Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/10)

Fact checked at 6:38 AM ET, Oct 10, 2026

Odds as of Oct 10, 5:56 AM ET

Notre Dame (5-0) hosts Stanford (2-3) at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET on NBC. The Irish are 39.5-point favorites (-112), up from 35.5 at the open, with the total at 54.5. Stanford is coming off a 57-3 loss at Wake Forest, where it played without cornerback Brandon Nicholson, five other defensive backs and linebackers Matt Rose and Jahsiah Galvan.

We expect Notre Dame to take control early. The Irish beat Rice 52-0 and Purdue 49-10 with backup quarterbacks finishing both games, and BYU is next on the schedule. Stanford's three losses (45-6 to Miami, 35-7 at Duke, 57-3 at Wake Forest) were all decided by 28 points or more, and the Cardinal left their starters in anyway. Davis Warren threw at least 30 passes in each of them, while backup Michael Mitchell Jr. threw 1, 4 and 3. Both picks need the same game: Micah Ford keeps getting handoffs and Benji Blackburn keeps catching short passes while the score gets ugly. If Stanford's offense can't move at all or its starters sit early, both picks go down together.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame Predictions

• Pick #1: Micah Ford 25+ Rushing Yards (-178)
• Pick #2: Benji Blackburn 21+ Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Micah Ford 25+ Rushing Yards (-178)

Every running back who got double-digit carries against Notre Dame this season ran for more than 25 yards. Wisconsin's Abu Sama III had 49 on 15 carries, Michigan State's Cam Edwards 38 on 12, Purdue's Fame Ijeboi 41 on 12 and North Carolina's Benjamin Hall 36 on 10. Rice is the outlier: its quarterback carried 16 times and its top running back managed 24 yards on seven.

That matters because Ford's workload doesn't go away when Stanford falls behind. He had 11, 11 and 16 carries in the three blowout losses, and he has 82 carries on the season to Sedrick Irvin's 35. His game log is 99 against Hawaii, 27 against Miami, 76 at Duke, 55 against Georgia Tech and 45 at Wake Forest, so he hasn't been held under 25 yet. Notre Dame will also be missing linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, ruled out on Thursday with a thumb injury.

This isn't a cheap number. The Irish allow 58.4 rushing yards a game and have held every opponent under 80. Ford has averaged under 3 yards a carry in three of five games, and against Miami he cleared 25 by two yards. A couple of tackles for loss can wipe out a drive's worth of short gains. The price implies a 64.0% chance, and with his carries this steady, we make it a little better than that.

PICK #2: Benji Blackburn 21+ Receiving Yards (-114)

Stanford's tight end does his best work in lopsided games. Blackburn caught four passes for 21 yards at Wake Forest, two for 28 at Duke and seven for 52 against Miami, so he reached this line in all three blowout losses. Add five catches for 49 against Hawaii and it's four of five games.

His one miss was the 34-27 win over Georgia Tech, when Warren threw for 396 yards, the wide receivers got loose downfield, and Blackburn finished with two catches for 9. Don't expect that game against a defense that allows 158.2 passing yards a game. The 15-yard line at -188 has cashed in the same four games, which makes 21+ at -114 (53.3% implied) the much better way to bet the same idea.

The matchup gives us some pause. The leading tight end against the Irish has reached 21 yards in only two of five games: North Carolina's Jelani Thurman had five catches for 50 last week and Michigan State's Jayden Savoury had 30, while Rice's tight ends didn't catch a pass. Blackburn has 20 catches in five games, though, and Stanford threw at least 30 times in every loss. The Wake Forest game also landed exactly on 21, so there's no margin if he catches two short passes and nothing else.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.