Stanford vs Hawaii Picks - August 23

Week 0 of the 2025 college football season closes with a late-night clash from Honolulu, as the Stanford Cardinal travel across the Pacific to face the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. It’s been a chaotic offseason for Stanford, with a new (and temporary) head coach and another talent drain after a fourth straight 3-9 campaign. 

Hawaii, meanwhile, is looking like a program finally on the rise under Timmy Chang, coming off back-to-back five-win seasons and projected to push for bowl eligibility. With a primetime slot on CBS/Paramount+, we’ve got you covered with our Stanford vs Hawaii best bets.

Stanford vs Hawaii Predictions

Pick #1: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 over Stanford Cardinal (-108) Click Here to Bet

Pick #2: Over 50.5 (-112) Click Here to Bet

Pick #3: Nick Cenacle Anytime Touchdown (-120) Click Here to Bet

PICK #1: Hawaii -2.5 over Stanford (-108)

Stanford enters this matchup in disarray. Former Carolina Panthers and Colts coach Frank Reich is serving as interim head coach after Troy Taylor’s messy departure, but this looks more like a holding pattern than a rebuild. The Cardinal have cycled through quarterbacks, lost nearly every skill-position player of note and return without a single player who scored a rushing touchdown last season. Veteran QB Ben Gulbranson provides stability, but he failed to secure the starting job at Oregon State last year after an impressive showing in 2023.

Contrast that with Hawaii, which returns 18 starters, including sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado, who exploded for 469 yards and five touchdowns in his first career start against New Mexico to end last season. Add in a pair of established receivers in Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle, and the Rainbow Warriors have some continuity and firepower.

Travel only makes things tougher. Stanford covered just two spreads all of last season. Meanwhile, Hawaii went 6–1 ATS at home in 2024. The Warriors are built for this environment, and with Stanford searching for an identity, the smart play is to lay the points with Hawaii.

PICK #2: Over 50.5 (-112)

The Over on the total looks tempting. Stanford’s defense was shredded last season, giving up 33.7 points per game. Their secondary in particular was abysmal, finishing at the bottom nationally, and though there is continuity with the defensive staff returning, there’s little reason to expect sudden improvement without a talent upgrade. That spells trouble against Hawaii’s pass-heavy run-and-shoot system.

Of course, Hawaii isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. The Rainbow Warriors have some solid pieces in the secondary but there is little to suggest they’ll dominate Week 0. Gulbranson’s experience and Reich’s pro-style sets should generate some drives, especially with sure-handed tight end Sam Roush catching safe passes. Hawaii plays fast, Stanford wants to be a little more deliberate and pound the run, but Week 0 games often get messy with turnovers and busted coverages.

Hawaii has enough in the passing game to put a crooked number on this defense, and Gulbranson, paired with Reich’s offensive mind, can figure out how to put points on the board against this Mountain West defense. Expect mistakes, big plays and a few defensive lapses to push this game into the mid-50s or higher.

PICK #3: Nick Cenacle Anytime Touchdown (-120)

When it comes to Hawaii’s passing game, it’s a pick-your-poison scenario between Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle. Both wideouts produced almost identical numbers last season: Ashlock with 629 yards and six TDs, Cenacle with 721 yards and six TDs. Each also found the end zone in Hawaii’s win over New Mexico with Alejado under center, with Cenacle grabbing seven catches for 93 yards and a score.

So why Cenacle over Ashlock here? Value. Ashlock sits around -135 for an anytime TD, while Cenacle can be grabbed at -120. Against a Stanford secondary that hasn’t shown the ability to cover anyone consistently, both are strong candidates to score, but Cenacle brings the better price. His chemistry with Alejado was clear down the stretch, and his ability to stretch the field should be particularly dangerous against this shaky Cardinal back end.

If Hawaii controls this game as expected, Alejado will have multiple opportunities to find his trusted wideouts in the red zone. Cenacle to score offers both value and a high probability outcome in a matchup tilted heavily toward Hawaii’s aerial attack.