Southern Miss vs. Troy Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/6)

Fact checked at 11:15 AM ET, Oct 6, 2026

Odds as of Oct 6, 10:42 AM ET

Neither offense is where it expected to be as Troy and Southern Miss open Sun Belt play on a Tuesday night. Troy is 2-2 after road losses at Missouri (27-17) and Utah State (21-10), and it has not topped 24 points against an FBS opponent. Southern Miss is 1-3 and has lost three straight, though the last loss looked different from the first two. With Ethan Hampton sidelined by a fractured hand, Landry Lyddy threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns in a 24-21 defeat at Tulane. Hampton is out again on the conference's game-day availability report, as are receivers Jaylen Himes and Grant Page, so Lyddy is expected to start again. Troy tight end Fabian Rogosch is a game-time decision. Nobody in either pick below is on the report. Troy has won five straight in the series.

Troy is a 10.5-point favorite on the consensus line with a total of 51.5, and both numbers have climbed. The earliest opener was Troy -8.5 and 48.5. The broader market opened at -9.5 and 50.5 on Sep 30, and one preview published late Monday still quoted the total at 49.5. We can't find an injury reason for the rise: the Southern Miss absences have been known since Sep 25. Neither team has played since Sep 26.

Kickoff is Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, on ESPN2. Expect mostly cloudy skies and about 70 degrees at kickoff, with an east wind near 5 mph and almost no chance of rain.

Southern Miss vs. Troy Predictions

• Pick #1: TK Keyes Anytime Touchdown (+115)
• Pick #2: Gavin Griffin 60+ Rushing Yards (-146)

PICK #1: TK Keyes Anytime Touchdown (+115)

Keyes has scored in three of Troy's four games, and the fourth came down to a replay review. He caught a 28-yarder against Sam Houston, a 73-yarder against Alabama State (an FCS team) and a 76-yarder on the second play at Missouri. At Utah State he was ruled in the end zone before halftime, then replay took the score off the board and Troy settled for a field goal.

At +115 as of this morning, the implied chance is 46.5%. Keyes leads Troy with 270 receiving yards and has caught three of Goose Crowder's seven touchdown passes, and Crowder has thrown at least one in every game this season. Southern Miss has given up a touchdown pass to every FBS team it has faced, six in three games: three at Auburn, two against UConn and a 47-yarder at Tulane. Troy has four plays of 50 yards or longer this season, and Keyes owns the two longest touchdowns.

Volume is what could sink this. Keyes has 12 catches in four games and all three of his scores covered at least 28 yards, so this is a bet on a long ball more than on a busy night. He had three catches for 20 yards at Utah State. Howard Kinchen, back from injury, has caught 11 passes and scored in both of his games, and Keyes has five catches in those two. If Troy's ground game controls the night, the touchdowns could go to the running backs instead. Kinchen at -105 is the alternative if you'd rather back the receiver seeing more of the ball, though he has only two games behind him.

PICK #2: Gavin Griffin 60+ Rushing Yards (-146)

Every FBS team that has played Southern Miss has run through it. Auburn went for 343 yards, UConn for 213 and Tulane for 281, a combined 5.8 yards a carry. The season average of about 235 rushing yards allowed a game is flattered by the 104 that Alcorn State, an FCS team, managed. In each of the three FBS games two runners cleared 60 yards without counting a quarterback: 108 and 85 for Auburn (its quarterback added 88 more), 84 and 64 for UConn, 200 and 70 for Tulane. The runner with the most carries got there every time, with 108 on 15 carries, 64 on 15 and 70 on 19. Southern Miss coach Blake Anderson said it himself at his press conference last week: "They will run the ball."

Griffin has lived right at this number, not comfortably above it. He ran for 81 against Sam Houston, 56 against Alabama State, 56 at Missouri and 66 at Utah State. That is two of four over 60 and four yards short in the other two. He is Troy's leading rusher, with 259 yards on 54 carries (4.8 a carry), and he has led the team in carries in three of four games. The price, -146 as of this morning, for 60 or more rushing yards, implies 59.3%, and his log alone doesn't justify that. The bet is that this opponent moves him from the number to past it.

Troy splits the work, and that is the worry. Jaheim Merriweather has 35 carries and Jordan Lovett 32, and Griffin's workload has ranged from 10 to 17. A comfortable Troy lead does not hand him the ball either. In the 34-17 win over Alabama State, Merriweather had 13 carries for 127 yards and three touchdowns while Griffin had 10. A deficit hurts too: Troy trailed in the second half at Utah State, Crowder threw 49 times and Griffin finished with 11 carries. For a bigger price, 70 or more is +105.

A caution if you play both: each pick needs Troy's offense to produce, and a night that belongs to Merriweather on the ground would hurt both. They do run through different players. One long pass covers the first, and a steady share of the carries covers the second.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.