South Florida vs. East Carolina Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/6)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

Odds as of 7:30 AM ET, Nov 6, 2026

South Florida (6-2, 2-2 American) visits East Carolina (4-4, 2-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville. East Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite. The total opened at 45.5 and has fallen to 39.5 since Michael Van Buren Jr. left USF's 30-10 win over UAB in the second quarter, and Brian Hartline still hasn't said whether his starter plays. If Van Buren can't go, Luke Kromenhoek is expected to start.

This sets up as a slow, physical game settled on the ground. USF threw for 46 yards against UAB after Van Buren went out. East Carolina's defense held Temple to three field goals last time out, and the Pirates' offense runs through TJ Engleman Jr. Something like 20-13, with Engleman punching in an East Carolina touchdown, wins both bets. Storms should clear Greenville before kickoff.

South Florida vs. East Carolina Predictions

• Pick #1: TJ Engleman Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+105)
• Pick #2: Under 39.5 (-112)

PICK #1: TJ Engleman Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+105)

Engleman has topped 90 rushing yards in six straight games and has scored in three of East Carolina's last four against FBS opponents: Rice, Memphis and Temple. The miss came in the overtime loss at UAB, and he still carried 26 times for 104 yards that day. Against Temple he ran 16 times for 107 yards and opened the second half with a 19-yard touchdown run. East Carolina ran 45 times for 222 yards in that game, while Mitch Griffis, back as the starter, threw for 130.

Expect more of the same. If USF can't move the ball through the air, East Carolina has no reason to open things up, and the work near the goal line stays with the backs. The +105 price implies a 48.8% chance.

He does share those short carries. Ashton Gray scored from a yard out against both Memphis and Temple. USF's defense also gives up just 14.5 points a game, so the Pirates may not get many scoring chances. No injury has been reported for Engleman.

PICK #2: Under 39.5 (-112)

USF's offense is why this number should hold. The Bulls scored 14 at Bowling Green, where Van Buren threw for 52 yards, and 13 in their loss to Temple. Kromenhoek ran for 92 yards against UAB but went 7-for-10 for 39 yards, and Hartline said a banged-up offensive line limited what USF could throw. Whoever starts gets a defense that just kept Temple out of the end zone and intercepted three passes.

East Carolina won't push the pace either. It wants to run and shorten the game, which is how it beat Temple 17-9. At -112 the Under implies a 52.8% chance, and 65% of the money is on it with only 40% of the bets.

East Carolina's recent scoring is the worry. Its last four games against FBS teams finished at 40, 47, 75 and 26 total points, and two of them went to overtime, which counts toward the total. USF's defense scored twice against UAB, and one defensive touchdown can sink a number this low. If Van Buren is cleared and healthy, USF's passing game gets back some of what it lost.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.