South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/8)

Fact checked at 6:53 AM ET, Oct 8, 2026

Odds as of Oct 8, 4:00 AM ET; Pick #2 price as of 6:51 AM ET

South Alabama (3-2, 1-0 Sun Belt) visits Arkansas State (2-3, 0-1) on Thursday at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro. Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. Both teams played last Saturday, so both are on a short week.

This game comes down to whether Arkansas State can stop South Alabama's ground game, and we don't think it can. The Jaguars run for 205.2 yards a game and went over 240 in all three of their wins. Arkansas State allows 197.2 rushing yards a game at 5.2 a carry. It has given up nine rushing touchdowns in five games, with at least one in every game against an FBS opponent. Jared Hollins has started the last three games at quarterback, and Major Applewhite named him the starter on Monday. In those starts the Jaguars scored 41 against Ohio, 21 at Kentucky and 52 against ULM.

Arkansas State has scored 24, 7, 17 and 20 points against its four FBS opponents. Its 52-point game came against FCS West Georgia. Running back Kenyon Clay is questionable on the Sun Belt availability report after missing the last two games with an ankle injury.

The consensus line is Arkansas State -3, with South Alabama +3 at -116 and a total of 59.5. The Red Wolves opened at -1.5, and their moneyline has gone from -120 to -140. The market is backing the home team, and we think it's backing the wrong one. The forecast is clear, in the 80s at kickoff and falling into the 70s, with a light northeast wind. Weather shouldn't be a factor.

South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Predictions

• Pick #1: South Alabama +3 (-116)
• Pick #2: South Alabama 1st Half +1.5 (-112)

PICK #1: South Alabama +3 (-116)

Arkansas State has given up 335 rushing yards to Memphis, 197 to Kennesaw State and 251 to Louisiana, which wore the Red Wolves down on the ground in the fourth quarter last Saturday. Butch Jones didn't sugarcoat it on Monday: "Way too many missed assignments last Saturday. We've got to do a much better job tackling." Next up is a three-back rotation of PJ Martin, Keenan Phillips and Trae'von Dunbar that ran for 241 yards against Southeast Louisiana, 266 against Ohio and 249 against ULM.

Hollins gives the offense a passing threat too. He has 779 passing yards and six touchdowns in his three starts, and against ULM he went 14 of 19 for 321 yards and three scores. The school lists South Alabama eighth nationally in time of possession at nearly 34 minutes a game.

Arkansas State's offense moves the ball but struggles to score. The Red Wolves have topped 24 points only against West Georgia. Jones said they too often "drive the ball 5, 6, 7 plays and then have no points to show for it." This series also tends to be close. The last three meetings were decided by a combined 10 points, and Arkansas State won the last two by one and two. That's why we'd rather have the field goal than the moneyline. If you want the bigger payout, South Alabama is +115 to win outright.

At -116, the implied chance is 53.7%.

South Alabama's defense is the weak spot. It allows 31.6 points a game, and seven defensive players are listed as out or out for the season, five of them linebackers. Kentucky also held this run game to 88 yards in a 45-21 win, so it can be stopped. The line has moved toward Arkansas State, and a healthy Clay would help the Red Wolves.

PICK #2: South Alabama 1st Half +1.5 (-112)

South Alabama starts fast. The Jaguars have scored on their opening possession in four of five games, according to the school, and they average 21.6 first-half points. In Hollins' three starts they led Ohio 24-7 and ULM 31-14 at the break and trailed Kentucky only 24-21. Arkansas State is the opposite. It has scored 17, 7, 7 and 10 first-half points against FBS teams, and its only halftime lead in those games was 10-7 at Louisiana. It trailed Memphis 21-17 and TCU 14-7 and was tied 7-7 with Kennesaw State.

The bet keeps it simple. The Red Wolves need to lead by two or more at halftime, which they have done once in four FBS games. A -112 price works out to a 52.8% implied chance, and the extra point and a half covers a tie.

The counterpoint is the road. South Alabama has trailed at halftime in both of its road games, 14-10 at Tulane and 24-21 at Kentucky. The home team has led at halftime in all five South Alabama games this season. Arkansas State also hasn't turned the ball over in its last three games, so it won't hand over many short fields.

Both picks depend on South Alabama's offense getting going on the ground early. If Arkansas State stops the run in the first half, both picks probably lose.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.