San Jose State vs USC Picks 8/29

San Jose State vs USC Picks 8/29

No. 14 USC opens their 2026 season Saturday against San Jose State at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, with kickoff scheduled for 3:00 PM ET on NBC.

Expectations are high for Lincoln Riley's fifth season, with the Trojans returning significant experience while introducing the nation's top-ranked freshman class. San Jose State enters from the opposite direction after a 3-9 campaign and major roster turnover.

USC should control this game comfortably. The more interesting questions are how quickly the Trojans pull away and how they choose to do it.

Predictions

USC -38.5 (-110)

Under 61.5 (-110)

USC Over 216.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

PICK #1: USC Trojans -38.5 over San Jose State Spartans (-110)

Laying nearly 40 points in a season opener is never comfortable, especially when USC has bigger goals than running up the score against an overmatched opponent.

San Jose State returns only 24% of its production, the second-lowest mark in the country, and is expected to start several transfers on offense. New quarterback Luke Weaver has thrown six career touchdown passes while recording seven turnover-worthy plays, which is a difficult profile to bring into the Coliseum against a USC defense that should be improved.

The Spartans already struggled badly last season, finishing 119th nationally in scoring defense at 32.5 points per game while permitting more than 400 yards per contest. Their season ended with four consecutive losses.

USC, meanwhile, has made a habit of destroying this level of competition. Since 2023, the Trojans have beaten Group of Six opponents by an average margin of more than 45 points, winning four of five by at least 39.

Jayden Maiava gives Riley continuity at quarterback after finishing second nationally in QBR last season, while King Miller returns after rushing for 990 yards.

There is some concern that USC will keep the gameplan intentionally vanilla. Riley has no reason to put anything sophisticated on tape for future Big Ten opponents, and once the Trojans establish a large lead, protecting starters will become the priority.

However, Saturday should provide extended opportunities for a heralded freshman class featuring players such as tight end Mark Bowman, Luke Wafle, Trent Mosley and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt. USC doesn't need Maiava throwing deep into the fourth quarter to create separation.

PICK #2: Under 61.5 (-110)

USC should score efficiently, but this does not feel like a game where Riley needs to chase 60 points. The objective should be getting his starters meaningful work, evaluating the offensive line and allowing younger players to gain experience without revealing too much of the playbook.

The offensive line is particularly important after USC lost its starting center. Expect the Trojans to shuffle combinations and determine which five-man group gives them the best foundation before conference play arrives.

USC also made defense a major offseason priority, adding talent through recruiting and the transfer portal while handing the unit to veteran defensive guru coordinator Gary Patterson.

If USC controls the line of scrimmage and forces Weaver into obvious passing situations, San Jose State could have difficulty sustaining drives.

PICK #3: USC Over 216.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

I prefer the USC team rushing total over a King Miller individual prop because of how this game should unfold.

Miller should get plenty of early work, but if USC builds the lead expected of a -38.5 favorite, there is little reason to keep their starting running back on the field deep into the second half.

The team total allows us to benefit from everyone.

USC ranked only 82nd nationally in rushing offense last season at 145.3 yards per game, and improving that area should be a priority in 2026. San Jose State surrendered 157.9 rushing yards per game last year and enters this season with minimal returning production.

Once the Trojans are comfortably ahead, expect fewer unnecessary dropbacks and plenty of straightforward rushing attempts designed to drain the clock.

USC can clear this number without asking Miller to carry the entire workload.