Sam Houston vs. Liberty Prediction, CFB Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/8)

Fact checked at 6:41 AM ET, Oct 8, 2026

Odds as of Oct 8, 4:48 AM ET

Liberty (4-1, 1-0 CUSA) runs the ball. Sam Houston (1-3, 0-0 CUSA) can't stop it. That's the game. The Flames average 208.2 rushing yards and have cleared 200 in three straight: 212 against Ball State, 263 at Coastal Carolina and 282 at Delaware. Sam Houston's three FBS opponents, Troy, Tulsa and Texas Tech, ran for 177, 241 and 219, and the Bearkats allow 190.3 per game overall.

Flip it around and Sam Houston has nothing on the ground. The Bearkats managed 38, 55 and 74 rushing yards in those same FBS games and scored 21, 17 and 14 points. Landyn Locke has thrown for 1,168 yards and 11 touchdowns, but the Bearkats have to do almost everything through the air, and Liberty has allowed 17.8 points per game and only five touchdown passes all season.

So we're backing a Liberty game: the Flames own the line of scrimmage, pull away, and Makai Jackson gets loose behind a defense that has to cheat up against the run. Both picks cash in that game.

Liberty is a 13.5-point favorite, and the spread has held there all week. The total opened at 51.5 and sits at 52.5. Deshawn Purdie is expected to start at quarterback for Liberty and Locke for Sam Houston. Liberty is on a short week after playing at Delaware on Friday, October 2, while Sam Houston comes off a bye after its September 26 loss at Texas Tech.

Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia, on ESPNU. The National Weather Service hourly forecast is clear, low 70s at kickoff and dipping into the 60s, with a light northwest wind and no rain. Weather won't matter.

Sam Houston vs. Liberty Predictions

• Pick #1: Liberty -13.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Makai Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+175)

PICK #1: Liberty -13.5 (-108)

Kam Davis is the problem Sam Houston has to solve, and nothing this season says it can. He has 457 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, with 166 yards at Coastal Carolina and 147 and two scores at Delaware. Peyton Jones gives Liberty a second back. No FBS team has run for fewer than 177 yards against the Bearkats, and Liberty held the ball for more than 38 minutes at Delaware and nearly 33 at Coastal Carolina.

Take out the 233 rushing yards Sam Houston piled up against FCS Nicholls and the Bearkats average 55.7 on the ground against FBS defenses. Everything falls on Locke, against a pass defense allowing 173.4 passing yards per game.

Liberty has won its last three by 36, 17 and 16 and covered all three. At -108 you're paying for a 51.9% chance.

Don't ignore Sam Houston's resume as a dog, though. It covered as a 16.5-point underdog at Troy (a 24-21 loss) and as a 12.5-point underdog against Tulsa (23-17), it has had extra time to prepare, and Liberty is working on six days' rest. The Flames also barely got past FCS Gardner-Webb, 24-23. A late Bearkats touchdown is the backdoor to watch.

PICK #2: Makai Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+175)

When Purdie throws a touchdown, it usually goes to Jackson: five of Purdie's seven scoring passes. Jackson has found the end zone in four of five games, at James Madison (34 yards), against Gardner-Webb (65), against Ball State (12) and twice at Coastal Carolina (58 and 33). Catches by game: three, two, four, five, five.

Four of those five scores covered 33 yards or more. That is the shot a run-first offense creates when safeties creep down, and it's why he fits next to the spread. The +175 price works out to 36.4%.

Delaware is the warning. Jackson caught five passes for 90 yards and didn't score, because Liberty finished every touchdown drive on the ground and Purdie didn't throw a scoring pass. Sam Houston also allows just 145.3 passing yards per game, partly because teams haven't needed to throw on it. If Davis and Jones take all the touchdowns, Liberty can cover and this still loses.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.