Penn State vs Ohio State Picks November 1st

A rivalry game that once looked like a potential playoff decider has taken on a drastically different tone as Penn State (3-4) travels to Columbus to face No. 1 Ohio State (7-0) in a Big Ten matchup at 12 PM ET on Saturday (FOX). The Buckeyes are unbeaten, dominant defensively and 6-1 against the spread, while Penn State has dropped four straight, each defeat by six points or fewer, and is just 1-6 ATS. 

Even with both teams coming off a bye, the circumstances could not be more different: Ohio State looks every bit the national title favorite, while the Nittany Lions are trying to salvage what has become a stunningly disappointing season. 

Penn State vs Ohio State Predictions Click Here to Bet

• Penn State +21 (-113)
• Under 44.5 (-110)
• Kaytron Allen Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Penn State +21 (-113) Click Here to Bet

Despite all that has gone wrong with Penn State’s offense and coaching situation, this is still a very experienced and very talented roster. A string of close losses and the season-ending injury to quarterback Drew Allar combined to derail what once looked like a playoff season. The firing of James Franklin only added to the chaos. But chaos doesn’t necessarily equal collapse in a single game.

Penn State still features one of the best pass defenses in the country, ranking fifth nationally in yards allowed through the air, and remains in the top 20 in total defense. This secondary is far more capable than anything Ohio State has faced since a 14-7 Week 1 struggle against Texas. While freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has been fantastic, completing 80% of his passes with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions, this will be a step up in terms of disguise, physicality and talent on the back end.

The bye week should help Penn State’s defense regroup, and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ familiarity with Ryan Day’s system, after leaving Ohio State for this job, should allow him to craft a plan that makes the Buckeyes grind their way down the field rather than hit explosives. Penn State’s run game, which remains strong behind Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, also gives the Nittany Lions a path to ball control and shortened possessions. 

As dominant as Ohio State has been, asking them to win by more than three touchdowns against a tough, prideful roster feels inflated. The Buckeyes win, but Penn State keeps it respectable.

Under 44.5 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Ohio State’s defense leads all of college football in scoring defense and total defense and is elite both in red-zone stops and in preventing explosive passes. Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense is now led by true freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, who threw for just 93 yards with two interceptions in the loss to Iowa. 

The Nittany Lions will try to protect him with a run-heavy, conservative game plan that eats clock and limits mistakes. Even if Ohio State builds a comfortable margin, this offense-defense combination is built to squeeze games down, not push tempo for style points.

Coming off the bye, both coaching staffs have had time to install wrinkles and adjustments, but that often leads to early-game defensive edges. This feels like a battle of field position, long drives that stall outside the end zone and a total that never fully gets going.

Kaytron Allen Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Click Here to Bet

Kaytron Allen has emerged as the more consistent threat in Penn State’s dangerous running back room, with over 600 rushing yards already and at least 50 yards in six of seven games this season. His 145-yard, two-touchdown game against Iowa before the bye showed that even with Penn State’s quarterback issue, he can produce against top-tier defenses on the road. 

Ohio State’s defense is phenomenal, but the relative weakness is against the run compared to its smothering pass coverage. Even if the Nittany Lions trail, their best chance to stay competitive remains on the ground, not through the air. Volume alone should take Allen above this number.