Penn State vs. Northwestern Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/2)

Fact checked at 11:45 AM ET, Oct 2, 2026

Odds as of Oct 2, 10:12 AM ET

Northwestern opens the new Ryan Field on Friday night, and it will do so shorthanded. The Wildcats (2-1) have ruled out cornerback Josh Fussell, and two more starters are doubtful and not expected to play: tight end Luke Dehnicke, the team's second-leading receiver, and defensive back Braden Turner. Safety Damon Walters is questionable. Penn State (3-1) has a hole of its own. Koby Howard, its leading receiver, was ruled out on Sept. 23 and has not played since.

The line has traveled. Penn State opened as a seven-point favorite in the look-ahead market. Then the Nittany Lions lost 24-20 at home to Wisconsin after leading 17-0, and Northwestern took No. 5 Indiana to 29-23 in Bloomington with Aidan Chiles throwing for 293 yards. The consensus is now Penn State -2.5 (-118), Northwestern +2.5 (-102), and the total has come down from 48.5 to 45.5 (Over -112, Under -108).

Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET on FOX in Evanston. The forecast is clear and 57 degrees at kickoff, with a north wind of 10 to 15 mph and no rain.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats Predictions

• Pick #1: Aidan Chiles Anytime Touchdown (+110)
• Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-108)
• Pick #3: James Peoples Anytime Touchdown (+115)

PICK #1: Aidan Chiles Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Four of Northwestern's five red-zone rushing touchdowns this season are Aidan Chiles runs. He has scored one in every game: 14 yards against South Dakota State, 1 and 3 yards against Colorado, 7 yards at Indiana. When the Wildcats get close, the quarterback is the first option on the ground, and at +110 as of 10:23 AM ET, the book makes him a little worse than a coin flip to do it again: 47.6%.

Northwestern has not wasted a trip inside the 20 all year. Fourteen red-zone possessions, 14 scores: five rushing touchdowns, five passing touchdowns and four field goals. Losing Dehnicke does not change who finishes those drives. The tight end has no touchdowns, and the five red-zone scoring passes went to Griffin Wilde, Joseph Himon II and Alex Honig. The two games in which Dehnicke caught two passes each were the 34 against South Dakota State and the 41 against Colorado, and Chiles ran for three touchdowns across those two.

Penn State's defense has been hard to drive on and easy to finish against. Opponents have reached the red zone eight times in four games and scored on all eight, four touchdowns and four field goals. All three rushing touchdowns Penn State has allowed came from 7 yards or closer, and two were quarterback runs, Wisconsin's Colton Joseph from 7 yards and Temple's Ajani Sheppard from 3.

Volume is the catch. Chiles has 30 carries for 20 net yards, a figure that includes seven sacks for 63 yards. He is not a runner between the 20s, so this bet needs Northwestern inside the 10, and that gets harder without Dehnicke's 208 of the team's 807 receiving yards. Those 34- and 41-point games came against South Dakota State and Colorado, not a defense giving up 11.5 points and 126.3 passing yards a game. The goal-line carry is not guaranteed to be his, either. Himon also has four touchdowns, and Caleb Komolafe averages nine carries a game.

Chiles has started every game and is the expected starter Friday. Only a touchdown he scores himself counts, not one he throws.

PICK #2: Under 45.5 (-108)

Penn State has not let anyone past 24 points, and Wisconsin needed a 72-yard touchdown pass to get there. Marshall scored 0, Temple 9, Buffalo 13, Wisconsin 24. Opponents are converting 19.2% of their third downs and averaging 126.3 passing yards a game, with five interceptions thrown. Both offenses are also missing their big-play receiver.

Northwestern's is Dehnicke, who averages 18.9 yards on his 11 catches, and the Wildcats do not run well enough to cover for him: 146 yards a game at 4.0 per carry, with Chiles sacked 2.33 times a game. Penn State's is Howard. The Nittany Lions scored 45, 27 and 55 with him. In the first game without him, Rocco Becht went 12 of 29 for 114 yards, seven of Penn State's 20 points came on an interception return, and the offense ran 36 times against 29 throws. A team that leans on the run keeps the clock moving. Three of Penn State's four games have landed on 45 or fewer: 45, 36, 68 and 44.

The Over's argument is Northwestern's defense, and the numbers back it. The Wildcats allow 417.3 yards a game and gave up 472 at Indiana, where Fussell left in the first quarter. With Fussell out, Turner not expected and Walters questionable, Penn State faces backups in the secondary and a run defense allowing 199.3 yards a game. Northwestern's games have finished with 52, 48 and 52 points. Penn State has a secondary question too: starting cornerback Daryus Dixson is questionable. Northwestern's offense is 14 for 14 in the red zone, and Penn State's defense has allowed a score on all eight trips against it. The total has already dropped three points from the 48.5 opener, and the weather is a small factor at most: clear, 57 degrees, a north wind of 10 to 15 mph and no rain.

What beats this Under is Penn State turning those advantages into touchdowns instead of field goals. The offense has scored on 16 of 20 red-zone trips, but six of those were field goals. The consensus total was 45.5 at -108 as of 10:12 AM ET, and -108 translates to 51.9%. A 24-17 game fits both touchdown picks and still stays under.

PICK #3: James Peoples Anytime Touchdown (+115)

Northwestern's run defense gives up 199.3 yards a game and 5.3 a carry. Indiana ran for 271 on it last week, with Lee Beebe Jr. getting 203 on 24 carries, and on Friday it may be without Walters, its starting safety and second-leading tackler with 24 stops. James Peoples is Penn State's leading rusher by yards. At +115, a 46.5% price, the market leans slightly against him.

Peoples has 37 carries for 199 yards, 5.4 per carry, with touchdown runs of 16 and 11 yards against Buffalo. His carries by game: 8, 7, 8, 14. The 14 came against Wisconsin, the most on the team in Penn State's first game without Howard, while the other three running backs combined for 12. With Howard missing, the ground is Penn State's clearest path to the end zone.

He shares the job, though, and he has not been the one finishing drives. Peoples has scored in one of four games. Carson Hansen leads the backfield with 39 carries, Quinton Martin Jr. has 26 and Cam Wallace 22, and six different Penn State players have a rushing touchdown. Becht took the 3-yard touchdown against Wisconsin himself, the only one the offense managed that day. Northwestern has allowed three rushing touchdowns in three games, all from 4 yards or closer, so Peoples needs either a long run or the right goal-line carry. If Walters plays, the matchup is the one Northwestern's run defense has already shown, which is still a poor one.

This pick and the Under can both cash. Penn State's points are more likely to come on the ground, a few drives at a time, than through the air. The price was +115 as of 10:23 AM ET.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.