Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/22)

Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Oct 22, 2026

Odds as of Oct 22, 9:09 AM ET

Oklahoma City already has a game behind it. The Thunder won 116-104 at San Antonio on Tuesday: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32, Jared McCain hit six threes for 20 off the bench, and Chet Holmgren put up 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocks. Denver opens its season here. Both rosters changed over the summer. The Thunder traded Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, and the Nuggets moved Peyton Watson in a sign-and-trade and signed DeMar DeRozan. Denver's expected starting five (Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic) is unchanged from last season.

It's last season's best defense against last season's best offense. Oklahoma City went 64-18 and allowed 107.7 points per 100 possessions, fewest in the league. Denver went 54-28 and scored 122.6 per 100, most in the league. The Thunder took the season series 3-1, but the two meetings in Oklahoma City finished 127-121 in overtime and 129-126, and Denver's lone win came in April with both teams resting their stars.

Julian Strawther (knee) is out for Denver and Spencer Jones (hamstring) is day-to-day. Oklahoma City is without Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber and Otega Oweh. The Thunder are favored by about nine points with a total around 236, and tipoff is 9:30 PM ET Thursday at Paycom Center.

Oklahoma City is the better team and probably wins. We think Jokic keeps Denver's offense running and this stays a single-digit game, something like 119-112. That's the game both picks need.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Predictions

• Pick #1: Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-133)
• Pick #2: Nuggets +9 (-110)

PICK #1: Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-133)

Jokic averaged more than 10 assists a game last season and got to 10 in 42 of his 66 games. In this building, against this defense, he was even busier: 14 in the overtime game and 13 in the March meeting. His one miss against the Thunder came in Denver in February, eight assists in 29 minutes of a 10-point loss.

He looked the same in the preseason, with 37 assists in 105 minutes over five exhibitions, eight of them in 31 minutes of the finale against the Lakers. Exhibition numbers come with an asterisk, but that's a big rate.

The price asks for a 57.1% chance. He cleared this line about 64% of the time last season.

What could go wrong is his minutes. David Adelman has talked about a platoon rotation that keeps starters away from the second unit, which could hold Jokic to a normal starter's load and leave the bench creation to DeRozan and Tyus Jones. A Thunder blowout would also cost him the fourth quarter, and he won't see a better defense all season.

PICK #2: Nuggets +9 (-110)

Nine points is a lot to lay against this Denver team. Last season Oklahoma City played 12 home games against the eight teams that won 50 or more, Denver included, and won only four of them by 10 or more. Its two home games against the Nuggets were decided by six in overtime and by three.

DRatings projects Oklahoma City 120.1, Denver 113.6, a 6.5-point game. Denver's starting five is back, and Denver ran the league's most efficient offense last season, which is how a road underdog hangs around.

At -110, the implied chance is 52.4%. Oklahoma City's home record is the worry: 34-7 at Paycom Center last season, with 22 of those 41 games won by double digits. Denver's defense ranked 21st and lost a good wing defender in Watson, and the Nuggets are playing their first game while the Thunder play their second. The spread has also climbed during the week, so the market is moving toward Oklahoma City.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.