Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, NFL Week 7 TNF Odds & Best Bets (10/22)

Fact checked at 9:02 AM ET, Oct 22, 2026

Odds as of Oct 22, 9:00 AM ET

Two 4-2 teams meet on a short week, and both quarterbacks show up hot. Caleb Williams missed three games with a hamstring injury, returned at Atlanta on Sunday and went 30-of-36 for 305 yards in a 31-23 win; he carries no injury designation. Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdown passes in New England's three straight wins, the latest a 26-19 win over the Jets. The Patriots lost both starting guards in that game, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown, and Mike Vrabel said Walter Rouse, set for his first NFL start, and Matt Pryor will start in their place. New England has also ruled out cornerback Carlton Davis III and reserve corners Karon Prunty and Channing Canada.

Chicago opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Oct 13 and has moved to -3 (-102), with New England +3 (-118) and the moneyline Chicago -155, New England +130. The total has climbed from the high 40s to 50.5. Kickoff is 8:15 PM ET at Soldier Field, and the forecast calls for a dry night around 60 degrees with light wind. We expect the quarterbacks to decide it. Maye keeps finding the end zone, and Chicago's ground game, without Kyle Monangai, stays ordinary.

Patriots vs. Bears Predictions

• Pick #1: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
• Pick #2: D'Andre Swift Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

PICK #1: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

Maye has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his last three games: three at Buffalo, four against Las Vegas and three against the Jets, with one interception in that stretch. His first three games were ugly (one touchdown, six interceptions), so it's fair to ask which version shows up. The longer record answers that. Last season he threw 31 touchdown passes and had at least two in 11 of his 17 regular-season games.

Chicago has been easy to throw on. The Bears have allowed nine passing touchdowns in six games and 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, 28th in the league, and they have only three interceptions. Across last season and this one, Maye has thrown two or more in 14 of 23 regular-season games, ahead of the 55.6% that -125 implies.

Protection is the worry. Rouse and Pryor are new at guard, Pryor is New England's fourth starting right guard in seven games, and Chicago ranks fifth in the league with 17 sacks. The Bears blitzed at a season-high 56.4% rate at Atlanta, where Kyler Gordon had three sacks and two forced fumbles. Maye was not sacked against the Jets after both guards went down, and Chicago is still without defensive ends Montez Sweat (suspended) and Dayo Odeyingbo (injured reserve). Maye is listed with a right shoulder injury but was a full participant and has no game status.

PICK #2: D'Andre Swift Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Swift has topped 60.5 rushing yards twice in six games, 124 in the opener and 84 in Week 3. His other four games finished at 45, 58, 43 and 44 yards, and he has 398 yards on 94 carries, 4.2 per attempt.

The last two games show tonight's backfield. Monangai (thumb and toe) is out for a third straight game, and without him Swift ran nine times for 43 yards at Green Bay and 16 times for 44 at Atlanta, a 2.8-yard average in that one. Roschon Johnson took 13 carries at Atlanta, and Swift has played 58% of the snaps in each of the last two games. With Williams back, Chicago threw 36 times at Atlanta.

New England allows 91.8 rushing yards per game, ninth in the league, and 3.9 yards per carry. At -113, the Under implies about a 53.1% chance. Last season Swift averaged 67.9 yards and cleared this number in 8 of 16 games. He can still run; the issue is a workload that keeps getting split. What beats this is one long run, the way he got to 124 in the opener, or a script that hands him 20 carries.

Both picks cash if Thursday belongs to the quarterbacks and the backs are an afterthought.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.