Penn State vs. Michigan Prediction, CFB Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/17)

Fact checked at 6:53 AM ET, Oct 17, 2026

Odds as of Oct 17, 6:52 AM ET

Penn State and Michigan both limp into Ann Arbor on losing streaks. Penn State is 3-3 after dropping three straight: 24-20 to Wisconsin, 34-13 at Northwestern and 31-23 to USC last Saturday. Michigan is 3-2 and coming off a bye, after a 20-19 home loss to Iowa and a 20-14 loss at Minnesota.

Michigan can defend. Nobody has scored more than 20 on it this year. Scoring is another matter: outside a 52-17 win over UTEP, the Wolverines have put up 13, 17, 19 and 14, and Bryce Underwood threw for 101 yards at Minnesota and 111 against Oklahoma. Now the line in front of him is thinning out. Ace Hamilton is out, Andrew Sprague hasn't played since Week 2, and starting center Jake Guarnera and right guard Brady Norton are questionable on Friday's Big Ten availability report. Penn State is without kicker Cristiano Rosa, and receiver Chase Sowell is listed as probable.

The spread hasn't moved off Michigan -6.5 since it opened on Oct 4, but the total has dropped from 51.5 to 42.5. Both of our bets come from the same place: a Michigan offense that can't score enough to pull away. CBS carries the 3:30 PM ET game from Michigan Stadium, where the forecast calls for sunshine, temperatures in the low 50s and barely any wind.

Penn State vs. Michigan Predictions

• Pick #1: Penn State +6.5 (-112)
• Pick #2: Michigan Team Total Under 24.5 (-130)

PICK #1: Penn State +6.5 (-112)

To cover 6.5, Michigan probably needs something like a 20-13 win. It has reached 20 points once this season, against UTEP. Penn State has scored at least 13 in all six of its games, including 20, 13 and 23 in its three Big Ten losses.

Look at what Michigan has done against Power Four teams: a 17-10 win over Oklahoma, a one-point loss to Iowa and a six-point loss at Minnesota. The Wolverines are 2-3 against the spread, and the only time they covered as a favorite was against UTEP.

Nobody should feel great about Penn State right now. The 34-13 loss at Northwestern was ugly, and playing without its kicker could cost it a field goal somewhere. But it lost to Wisconsin by four and to USC by eight, and Rocco Becht threw for 289 yards in the USC game. At -112 you're paying for a 52.8% chance, and a touchdown head start against this offense is worth more than that.

PICK #2: Michigan Team Total Under 24.5 (-130)

Michigan has topped 24 points once in five games, and that was UTEP. Western Michigan, Oklahoma, Iowa and Minnesota held it to 13, 17, 19 and 14. Even when the yards came, the points didn't: Michigan out-gained Iowa 429 to 285 and scored 19. At Minnesota it managed 180 yards and turned it over three times.

A banged-up line won't make 25 any easier. Hamilton and Sprague are already gone, and Michigan could be breaking in a new center if Guarnera can't go. That's why we'll pay -130, a 56.5% break-even, against an offense that has scored more than 19 against one FBS opponent all season.

What scares us is Penn State's defense. It gave up 24, 34 and 31 points in Big Ten play, Northwestern ran for 413 yards on it, and Friday's report lists four defensive ends and three cornerbacks as out.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.